Maximum Entertainment: Q1 largely as expected, limited changes to estimates

Research Update

2024-05-22

07:04

Analyst Q&A

Closed

Hjalmar Ahlberg answered 6 questions.

Redeye updates on Maximum Entertainment following Q1-results which were largely in line with our expectations. The company reiterates its target of 30% revenue from own IPs by end of 2025 and we have made limited changes to our estimates.

Hjalmar Ahlberg

Tomas Otterbeck

Q1-results in line with expectations

Maximum Entertainment reported revenue of EUR19.9m (growth of 22%) and EBITDA of EUR1.8m (margin of 9%), which was close to our forecasts of EUR18.7m and EUR1.9m respectively. The company continued to see progress on profitability and balance between cash generation and investments. Still, net debt increased vs Q4 2023, and more progress is needed to improve the company’s financial strength.

Increased transparency with IFRS accounting

Following the change of reporting currency to EUR and accounting standard to IFRS, the company has improved transparency with more granularity on costs while it also impacts reported EBIT positively as goodwill is no longer amortized. The company has also provided a sales split where it discloses revenue from own IPs, licensed publishing, and sub-publishing. With this, we believe it will become easier to understand the development of profitability, which varies between quarters depending on the sales mix.

Limited estimate changes

We have made limited changes to our estimates while we lower our base case as we adjust for somewhat lower growth and an increased share count following earnout settlements. Maximum Entertainment is currently valued low at an EV/EBITDA of 3-4x 2024-25E while our base case of SEK15 (SEK20) indicates significant upside and implies an EV/EBITDA of 8-10x 2024-25E. However, we also highlight that the company’s financial flexibility remains limited, which is reflected in our bear case that includes dilution from an equity capital injection and implies a fair value of SEK3 (SEK5).

Key financials

EURm202220232024e2025e2026e
Revenues112.799.9101.4109.0117.1
Revenue Growth121%-11.4%1.5%7.5%7.5%
EBITDA9.28.514.318.622.0
EBIT6.4-13.56.18.610.0
EBIT Margin6.0%-13.5%6.1%7.9%8.6%
Net Income-7.4-17.50.203.45.3
EV/Sales0.40.60.50.50.4
EV/EBITDA4.26.53.62.82.3
EV/EBIT5.9-4.18.36.05.0

Q1-results in line with expectations

Maximum Entertainment reported revenue of EUR19.9m (growth of 22%) and EBITDA of EUR1.8m (margin of 9%) for Q1 2024, which was close to our forecasts of EUR18.7m and EUR1.9m respectively. The gross margin came in at 32%, which was slightly lower than our forecast of 35%. As the company has switched from K3 to IFRS accounting standards, most other result metrics and historical numbers are not comparable. Still, measuring net opex as gross profit less EBITDA, the overall cost level was in line with our expectations (EUR4.5m vs estimate of EUR4.6m). The table below summarizes Q1-results outcome compared to our forecast.

Disclosures and disclaimers

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