Curasight Q1: Moving forward
Research Update
2024-05-27
08:57
Redeye updates its view of Curasight following the Q1 report and recent events in the company.
FT
Fredrik Thor
Contents
Q1 review
Valuation
Investment thesis
Quality Rating
Financials
Rating definitions
The team
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The report in itself was no surprise as the operating loss was in line with expectations at DKK9.4m, and the cash position amounted to DKK11.9m at the end of the quarter. The company also mentions in the report that it has received the milestone payment announced in January relating to GMP manufacturing (USD0.5m), which would be roughly DKK3.5m. However, this is not fully disclosed in the report.
During the quarter, Curasight announced a strategy to accelerate its therapeutic platform through a phase I/IIa basket trial in five indications (brain cancer, neuroendocrine tumors, head and neck cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, and pancreatic cancer) expected to start in 2025. We see this as a promising approach, but it would require additional capital.
We previously assumed a rights issue of DKK75m (at DKK12.5 per share). Following the share price development and Curasight's intended sum in the canceled rights issue, we make some adjustments (assume Curasight will raise DKK50m but at a lower price (DKK6 per share). We also lower our OPEX assumptions as the company has guided that its basket study will be initiated in 2025. As a result, we adjust our base case to DKK27 (29) per share.
DKKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e |
Revenues | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.0 | 42.9 |
EBIT | -19.0 | -33.2 | -38.2 | -14.1 |
Net Income | -18.3 | -26.2 | -38.2 | -14.1 |
(The numbers in parenthesis refer to the corresponding quarter of last year)
The report in itself was no surprise as the operating loss was in line with expectations at DKK9.4m, and the cash position amounted to DKK11.9m at the end of the quarter. The report also mentions that it received the milestone payment announced in January relating to GMP manufacturing (USD 0.5m), which would be roughly DKK3.5m. However, this is not fully disclosed in the report.
During the quarter, Curasight announced a strategy to accelerate its therapeutic platform through a phase I/IIa basket trial in five indications (brain cancer, neuroendocrine tumors, head and neck cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, and pancreatic cancer) expected to start in 2025. We see this as a promising approach, also as the company more clearly evaluates the theranostics approach (uTREAT and UTRACE) with this approach. As the broad therapeutic potential of targeting uPAR is one of Curasight's key competitive advantages, it makes sense to evaluate uTREAT in several indications in one trial (basket) to maximize value. Still, the next step after this trial will likely be dependent on a partner.
In relation to the announced strategy, Curasight also announced its intention to raise up to DKK51.2m in a rights issue, which was later canceled due to low interest (in part since the share price fell below the subscription price). The company mentions in its report that it expects "to be able to announce additional funding to the market soon with the effort to accelerate our clinical pipeline and continue to ensure value creation for our shareholders and at the same time contribute meaningfully to cancer treatment for patients in need."). We will return more to the uTREAT program but would like to learn more about the financing solution first.
In the report, the company mentions that it expects to start the phase IIb trial with uTRACE in prostate cancer in H1 2024 (it has already been approved) and receive a milestone payment from Curium in relation to the 1st treated patient. We don't yet know the extent of this payment, but we would guess that it is at least on par with the payment in relation to GMP manufacturing, which should somewhat boost the company's cash position. Still, we expect the cash runway to extend into Q3, which is not far away, but we would expect an announced solution earlier. We assume a rights issue in our base case, but an amended deal with Curium or another agreement/soft funding could also be a positive solution.
In the previously announced rights issue, the company opted to raise up to DKK51.2m, and we had previously assumed a rights issue of DKK75m (at DKK12.5 per share). Following the share price development and Curasight's intended sum, we make some adjustments (assume Curasight will raise DKK50m but at a lower price (DKK6 per share). We also lower our OPEX assumptions as the company has guided that its basket study will be initiated in 2025. As a result, we adjust our base case to DKK27 (29) per share.
Asset | Indication | LoA | Royalties | Peak sales (USDm) | Est. launch | Deal size USDm | rNPV (DKKm) | |
uTRACE Brain | Brain Cancer | 33% | 20% | 137 | 2027 | 70 | 147 | |
uTRACE Prostate | Prostate Cancer | 31% | 15% | 564 | 2026 | 70 | 304 | |
uTRACE NETs | Neuroendocrine Tumors | 31% | 20% | 99 | 2028 | 70 | 102 | |
uTRACE Head & Neck | Head and Neck Cancer | 31% | 20% | 181 | 2028 | 70 | 148 | |
uTREAT Glioblastoma | Glioblastoma | 5% | 15% | 941 | 2031 | 350 | 98 | |
Technology value (DKKm) | 799 | |||||||
Net cash* (DKKm | 56 | |||||||
Shared costs** (DKKm) | -87 | |||||||
Fair value (DKKm) | 767 | |||||||
Shares outstanding (million) | 20 | |||||||
Diluted shares outstanding (million) | 28 | |||||||
Equity value per share (DKK) | 27 |
** Includes assumed rights issue
Case
Theranostics platform with broad potential
Evidence
uPAR biomarker a predictor of cancer severity
Supportive Analysis
Challenge
Capital injection needed for ambitious strategy
Challenge
Commercialization of uTRACE
Valuation
Broad potential not yet mirrored in valuation
Summary Redeye Ratings
The rating consists of three valuation keys, each consituting an overall assesment of several factors that are rated on a scale of 0 to 1 points. The maximum score for a valuation key is 5 points.
People: 3
The company boasts a well-assembled team that merges the management and private equity expertise of CEO/CFO
Ulrich Krasilnikoff (including experience from Capidea) with the strong scientific foundation of its co-founders. Among
them, Andreas Kjær is prominent, serving as the CSO/CMO and a board member. Furthermore, insiders hold some
70% of the capital, which is quite unusual for a biotech company at this stage and clearly shows their “skin in the
game”
Business: 3
Curasight, having not yet generated any revenues, has no established position in the market. However, success in the
development and commercialization of uTRACE and uTREAT could provide the company with strong protective
barriers surrounding its business, protected by patents and rigid guidelines, ensuring stability. Furthermore, we
estimate that Curasight will out-license its project and thus see an asset-light business model with the potential for
high profitability
Financials: 0
Curasight is a pre-revenue biotech company that has not historically achieved profitability, and it anticipates a need
for capital in the relatively near term.
Income statement | |||
DKKm | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e |
Revenues | 0.00 | 7.0 | 42.9 |
Cost of Revenue | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Operating Expenses | 32.1 | 45.2 | 57.0 |
EBITDA | -32.1 | -38.2 | -14.1 |
Depreciation | 1.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Amortizations | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
EBIT | -33.2 | -38.2 | -14.1 |
Shares in Associates | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Interest Expenses | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Net Financial Items | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
EBT | -33.2 | -38.2 | -14.1 |
Income Tax Expenses | -7.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Net Income | -26.2 | -38.2 | -14.1 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
Contents
Q1 review
Valuation
Investment thesis
Quality Rating
Financials
Rating definitions
The team
Download article