Lipigon Q1 2024: Phase II Underway
Research Update
2024-05-29
07:05
Analyst Q&A
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Richard Ramanius answered 4 questions.
Redeye comments on Lipigon's Q1 report 2024. Since our last update, patient recruitment to the phase II study of Lipisense has begun.
Richard Ramanius
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The phase II study of Lipisense was approved in February. Three sites are being activated and additional ones will be included. Patient recruitment is now underway after some initial delays. The study is expected to take around one year. Patients are only treated for one month, so the main factor is the recruitment rate. Faster or slower recruitment can decrease or increase the time to topline data.
In May, the company qualified for the last step in the EIC accelerator programme, which can result in a research grant of up to EUR2.5 million and investment funding of up to EUR15m for the future clinical development of Lipisense. Receiving this grant could mean that limited additional equity funding will be needed for the phase IIb study since half of the costs are expected to be borne by Leaderna, responsible for Asian sites. Receiving this grant would consequently represent a major share catalyst. However, the EIC Fund targets ownership of around 10% that can rise to 25%, so the investment funding is dependent on a much higher share price.
We have changed our valuation model and made some minor changes resulting in the same base case as before of SEK2.5. The next (minor) catalyst will likely be the start of Leaderna's phase I study of Lipisense in China, which should lead to a milestone payment. Lipigon depends on this (or the EIC grant) to fund operations until the readout of its own phase II study of Lipisense.
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 0.39 | 17.5 | 16.5 | 28.4 | 218.3 |
Revenue Growth | -87.9% | 4429% | -5.4% | 71.4% | 670% |
EBITDA | -37.3 | -12.3 | -15.5 | -15.2 | 174.8 |
EBIT | -37.3 | -12.3 | -15.5 | -15.2 | 174.8 |
EBIT Margin | -9673% | -70.6% | nm. | nm. | nm. |
Net Income | -37.3 | - | -15.5 | -15.2 | 145.8 |
EV/Sales | -25.0 | -1.8 | nm. | nm. | nm. |
EV/EBIT | 0.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | -0.1 |
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Contents
Investment thesis
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