Advenica: Strong quarter confirms the case

Research Update

2024-07-22

07:54

Redeye offers an update on Advenica following the company's Q2 report. Net sales was up by 55% to SEK 48m in the quarter due to solid Design House sales in combination with slightly better than expected sales in Product and Solution. The gross margin was in line, while EBIT was higher than our estimate at SEK 5.4m, representing an 11.3% margin.

Fredrik Reuterhäll

Hjalmar Ahlberg

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Exceeds Q2 Estimates with strong EBIT margin

Net sales reached SEK 47.9m, driven by better-than-expected deliveries from Product and Solution. Design House aligned with expectations at SEK 29m. Product Solution sales soared 405% y/y to SEK 19.6m. EBIT rose to SEK 5.4m (11.3% margin), outperforming our SEK 2.6m estimate Operating cash flow was SEK 8.7m, and cash flow after working capital changes was SEK 1.7m.

Expecting high growth but lower Ebit in Q3

Based on the order intake, next quarter should be fairly strong even if Q3 is historicly a small quarter due to the summer months . We believe sales will come in at SEK33m, 24% growth Y/Y with an negative Ebit of SEK3m due to lower share of encryption products up for delivery in the quarter.

Reiterate the valuation range

Redeye reiterate the valuation range. We keep th Bear Case SEK5 (5) and Bull Case SEK14 (14) intact, with the Base Case of SEK10 (10). Our projected sales growth is 9% with an flat to slightly positive operating profit for the full year. The share has outperformed the broader market and trades above our Bull Case. YTD the stock is up 104% compared to index of 7.8%. The share trades at EV/Sales c4.1x, inline with peers.

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Total Revenue119.9148.9162.8176.2194.3
Revenue Growth18.4%24.2%9.4%8.2%10.3%
EBITDA-2.4-5.00.456.29.7
EBIT-2.4-5.00.456.29.7
EBIT Margin-2.0%-3.3%0.3%3.5%5.0%
Net Income-2.7-4.22.36.610.1
EV/Sales3.11.94.13.83.4
EV/EBIT-153-58.01,47310867.4

Q2 2024

Disclosures and disclaimers

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