SSH Communications Security: Waiting for that tailwind

Research Update

2024-07-19

08:00

Analyst Q&A

Closed

Fredrik Reuterhäll answered 0 questions.

Redeye provides an update following the Q2 2024 report. Sales increased by 4.1% y/y to EUR5.1m, with a EBITDA margin of 9.1%. PrivX grew by 21.5% pushing Subscription growth by 10.9%. We reiterate our valuation range and expect H2 to be strong. We argue that SSH should be seen as a stable company within the cybersecurity sector with a robust subscription revenue model that is growing profitable.

Fredrik Reuterhäll

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Strong profitability, soft topline growth

Sales came in at EUR5.1m, a y/y increase of 4% -5% below our estimate. Subscription sales came in at EUR2m, License Sales were EUR0.1m, and Maintenance sales EUR1.9m. Subscriptions were slightly weaker than our expectations of EUR3.1m and grew 10.9% in the quarter. Subscription ARR was EUR19m (EUR10.8m), growing 3.8% y/y. Recurring revenue, ARR mounted to EUR11.7m (18.3m), up 8.3% y/y. PrivX subscription sales was up by 21.2%.

Still expecting sales to ramp up in H2

We stated in our update after the Q1 report that we expect a ramp-up in H2, and we are now even more convinced this will be the case. All organizational changes have been completed, the cost base is under control, and a sales push towards the US paves the way for a strong end to 2024 and into 2025. We anticipate full-year sales of EUR 23m, reflecting 13% growth.

Wider valuation range, keeping the Base Case

Our Base Case is EUR1.8 (1.8) per share, with a Bear Case of EUR0.9 (1) and a Bull Case of EUR3.1 (3.4), implying a 36% upside to Base Case. The stock is trading at EV/Sales of 1.8x next year, and EV/Ebitda 14x, roughly 50% discount to peers. We still argue that SSH should be seen as the most stable and predictable company within the Nordic cybersecurity sector due to its robust subscription revenue model.

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Revenues19.320.422.928.635.0
Revenue Growth13.1%5.8%12.5%24.7%22.4%
EBITDA1.21.81.73.64.9
EBITDA Margin6.3%8.8%7.4%12.6%14.0%
Net Income-2.6-1.9-1.7-0.240.68
EV/EBITDA72.829.730.014.010.1

Q2 2024

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