Lytix Q1 2024: Verrica Readout Imminent
Research Update
2024-05-31
14:16
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Richard Ramanius answered 2 questions.
Redeye comments on the Q1 report 2024. The rest of 2024 is funded through the recent rights issue, including the readout of Verrica's phase II study that may change the investment case.
Richard Ramanius
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Lytix raised gross NOK50m in an equity issue that will fund the rest of 2024. With a current pro-forma cash position of around NOK70m, this will fund the company into 2025, past the Verrica readout, the second readout from ATLAS-IT-05 and the start of NeoLIPA (in adjuvant melanoma).
As an investigator-sponsored trial, costs will be very limited fror NeoLIPA. The Norwegian Medical Products Agency approved this study in April. It is a phase II study in neoadjuvant advanced resectable melanoma in combination with pembrolizumab. The first patient will be recruited in mid-2024. The study will take around 18 months with the first readout in H1 2025.
We have removed LTX-315 in later-stage refractory melanoma patients from the base case while maintaining it in our bull case. This has a minor negative impact of around NOK1 per share since we maintain the assumed USD600m deal value and the potential neoadjuvant population is much larger. The readout from Verrica's phase II study in basal cell carcinoma is expected in June. It could change the investment case, potentially making this the most valuable programme. The readout will likely have a major impact on our base case, with an estimated immediate upside potential of around 50% on positive results.
NOKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 17.3 | 10.2 | 6.3 | 13.0 | 231.5 |
Revenue Growth | -33.1% | -40.7% | -38.5% | 107% | 1678% |
EBITDA | -65.7 | -96.8 | -76.7 | -46.8 | 173.8 |
EBIT | -65.7 | -96.9 | -76.7 | -46.8 | 173.8 |
EBIT Margin | -380% | -2427% | nm. | -413% | 75.1% |
Net Income | -56.0 | -87.9 | -76.7 | -46.8 | 173.8 |
EV/Sales | 9.6 | 36.1 | nm. | 29.7 | 0.5 |
EV/EBIT | -2.5 | -1.5 | -3.8 | -7.2 | 0.7 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
Contents
Investment thesis
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