Lytix Q1 2024: Verrica Readout Imminent

Research Update

2024-05-31

14:16

Analyst Q&A

Closed

Richard Ramanius answered 2 questions.

Redeye comments on the Q1 report 2024. The rest of 2024 is funded through the recent rights issue, including the readout of Verrica's phase II study that may change the investment case.

Richard Ramanius

Contents

Investment thesis

Download article

Rights issue of gross NOK50m

Lytix raised gross NOK50m in an equity issue that will fund the rest of 2024. With a current pro-forma cash position of around NOK70m, this will fund the company into 2025, past the Verrica readout, the second readout from ATLAS-IT-05 and the start of NeoLIPA (in adjuvant melanoma).

Focusing on earlier stage melanoma

As an investigator-sponsored trial, costs will be very limited fror NeoLIPA. The Norwegian Medical Products Agency approved this study in April. It is a phase II study in neoadjuvant advanced resectable melanoma in combination with pembrolizumab. The first patient will be recruited in mid-2024. The study will take around 18 months with the first readout in H1 2025.  

Base case NOK13 (NOK14)

We have removed LTX-315 in later-stage refractory melanoma patients from the base case while maintaining it in our bull case. This has a minor negative impact of around NOK1 per share since we maintain the assumed USD600m deal value and the potential neoadjuvant population is much larger. The readout from Verrica's phase II study in basal cell carcinoma is expected in June. It could change the investment case, potentially making this the most valuable programme. The readout will likely have a major impact on our base case, with an estimated immediate upside potential of around 50% on positive results.

Key financials

NOKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Revenues17.310.26.313.0231.5
Revenue Growth-33.1%-40.7%-38.5%107%1678%
EBITDA-65.7-96.8-76.7-46.8173.8
EBIT-65.7-96.9-76.7-46.8173.8
EBIT Margin-380%-2427%nm.-413%75.1%
Net Income-56.0-87.9-76.7-46.8173.8
EV/Sales9.636.1nm.29.70.5
EV/EBIT-2.5-1.5-3.8-7.20.7

Investment thesis

Disclosures and disclaimers

Premium Plan required to unlock

Unlock companies to access

more high quality research.

Contents

Investment thesis

Download article