Speqta: Returns to Growth Focus as the Integration Completes

Research Update

2024-06-03

10:25

Analyst Q&A

Closed

Fredrik Nilsson answered 4 questions.

Despite lowering our short-term forecasts, Redeye retains its positive stance on Speqta following the Q1 report. As the integration of Bidbrain/BrightBid is more or less finalized, we expect ARR to accelerate in absolute numbers in late 2024 and beyond. Also, we are positive towards Speqta going for a partnership-based internationalization strategy.

Fredrik Nilsson

Mark Siöstedt

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Review of Q1 2024

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Integration Focus Hurting Sales Short-Term

ARR was SEK65.8m, corresponding to a 46% growth y/y, up from SEK61.7m in Q4. While the q/q increase of SEK4.5m was substantially stronger than the SEK0.4m seen in Q4 2023, it was below last year’s Q1 increase of SEK6.8m. Although a softer macroeconomic environment had a slight negative impact, the integration of BrightBid and Speqta has taken management’s focus in recent quarters, hurting sales. However, as the integration is more or less finalized, we and management expect ARR growth to accelerate in H2 2024 and 2025. In addition, Speqta has focused on larger customers as the product has become more comprehensive, leading to longer sales cycles. EBITDA – CAPEX was SEK -13.9m, somewhat lower than the SEK-12.7m we expected. The lower sales than expected was largely mitigated by lower OPEX than estimated.

Matching Board and Name to the Business

As today’s Speqta has very little in common with the pre-BrightBid Spetqa – new business, new board, new owners, new management – we believe changing the company's name to BrightBid makes a lot of sense. It becomes clear to investors that this is another business and it strengthens the brand. The recent directed share issue brought in several interesting investors. The company now has a board and owner list that contains several people with vast experience from international SaaS businesses – which is rare in companies of Speqta’s size.

Base Case Unchanged at SEK9

SEK9 implies a ~3.6x sales 2025e valuation multiple (in line with the average). While Speqta must prove it can sustain high growth and scale its business, the product is scalable internationally. That implies a huge TAM and should motivate higher multiples, all else equal. Speqta’s growth rate stands out as one of the highest, and if it can sustain solid growth while moving towards profitability, we believe it will trade at a premium to the average SaaS business.

Key financials

SEKm20232024e2025e2026e
Revenues58.184.7110.9143.7
Revenue Growth113%45.7%30.9%29.5%
EBIT-57.7-45.7-30.5-17.7
EBIT Margin-99.3%-53.9%-27.5%-12.3%
EV/Revenue2.02.11.81.5
EV/EBIT-2.1-3.9-6.7-12.3
ARR6280110147
ARR Growth62%30%37%34%
EBITDA - CAPEX-56.5-35.7-21.7-10.2
EBITDA - CAPEX Margin-97%-42%-20%-7%
EV/ARR1.92.21.81.5
EV/EBITDA - CAPEXnegnegnegneg
Net Debt(20)(32)(5)9
NWC/R12mSales0%-22%-22%-22%

Review of Q1 2024

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Contents

Review of Q1 2024

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