Sdiptech: Comforting stability
Research Update
2024-07-22
07:00
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Niklas Sävås answered 4 questions.
Redeye retains its positive view of Sdiptech following a Q2 report that met our expectations. The company continues to perform strongly with organic growth figures well above peers and sustained margins. We believe continued stable results will drive the stock upwards from here and nudge up our base case fair value per share.
Niklas Sävås
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Sales increased by 19% year over year, and organic sales growth was 9% excluding currency effects in Q2. This was in-line with our estimates. The adjusted EBITA margin was solid and came in at c18.7% with organic EBITA growth of c1%. Net profit was negatively impacted by higher financing costs and a higher tax rate and earnings per share decreased with c8%. Cash conversion of c83% was strong and we believe in continued strong cash flows ahead. The company meets tough comparables in Q3 and we expect a slowdown in organic growth.
Sdiptech has had to adjust to the higher interest rate environment by slowing down its acquisition pace. It is now back to a reasonable gearing level and considering expected lower interest rates ahead we believe the company will gradually increase its acquisition pace. The company faces significant earn-out payments in the current year and in future years but we expect it to tackle that with strong cash flows and discipline around valuations leading to a net debt ratio around current levels.
We increase our Fair Value Range from SEK200 to SEK580 to SEK220 to SEK600 with a Base Case per share of SEK400. The market’s reaction to the Q2 report was somewhat muted, but expectations was also high after a 40% appreciation since the release of the Q1 report. We believe continued stable results will drive the stock upwards.
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 3,585.1 | 4,887.9 | 5,680.8 | 6,188.6 | 6,961.9 |
Revenue Growth | 30.7% | 36.3% | 16.2% | 8.9% | 12.5% |
EBITDA | 858.3 | 1,146.1 | 1,293.1 | 1,396.2 | 1,559.5 |
EBIT | 641.2 | 835.5 | 931.8 | 1,043.5 | 1,162.6 |
EBIT Margin | 18.3% | 17.3% | 16.7% | 16.9% | 16.7% |
Net Income | 428.1 | 445.6 | 482.0 | 569.0 | 636.7 |
EV/Sales | 3.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
EV/EBIT | 18.0 | 16.2 | 18.1 | 16.3 | 14.9 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
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