A total of 7.2m shares out of a maximum of 20.7m were allocated. This is a 35% subscription rate, which is below average and a rather negative outcome. After deducting expenses of NOK5.6m, we estimate the net proceeds at NOK12.5. This will only support the company for around three months. Atlas has promised to support the company with monthly funding of NOK4m/month up to a total of NOK48m until June 2025. However, this means the share conversions will have to continue, while the plan with the rights issue was to avoid this.

Since our initiation coverage, Circio has made significant progress with its circular RNA platform CircVec. The 2.1 version produced almost 10 times more protein in vitro than straight mRNA. It produced 3-4 times more protein in mice after 150 days, with statistical models showing 20 times higher yield over two years. Further experiments are being conducted using an AAV carrier, which is the standard in gene therapy. This is the area where Circio hopes to negotiate its first licensing deal within the next 12 months. Further work with version 2.2 produced 2-4 times more protein than 2.1 in early testing.

While we have built a valuation model for Circio’s projects, it is challenging to assign a particular value to the share as we can only guess what that the number of shares will be within one year. We are also uncertain about the sustainability of the Atlas arrangement with the current share liquidity. The base case can therefore only be seen as indicative.