The highlight of the 18-month readout in June was the large share of patients still alive after 18 months, estimated at 36% in the evaluable population vs 19% in historical controls (in the ITT population). The 12-month progression-free survival rate was another highlight at 35% versus 12% in historical controls (ITT population). This shows a few patients survive much longer than expected, a characteristic of immunotherapy. According to the conference call, these results have resulted in more partnering interest.

Alligator secured loans and convertibles of up to SEK80m before costs to fund the company until Q1 2025. This allows the company to finalise partnering discussions after the 18-month readout. It also puts pressure on management so secure a deal before this, as a rights issue would likely have to made to repay the loan if no deal materialises.

We have reduced the expected upfront payment from USD75m to USD40m, added one year to the timeline of mitazalimab and removed dilution from our base case. This results in a base case of SEK2.4 (SEK2.3). The investment case now hinges entirely on a mitazalimab deal. The positive clinical results together with mitazalimab being phase III ready speak in favour of a deal, while the historical high risk in pancreatic cancer speaks against it. Business development skills may decide the outcome.