Sivers' Q2 report came in roughly in line with Redeye's estimate on total sales, but better gross margin and tight cost control left adj. EBITDA SEK10m better than we had expected. While Wireless came in below estimates, Photonics more than compensated for this. In particular, product sales grew by around 200% for both business units - albeit from low levels. However, it also makes it obvious that several of Sivers' customers are now moving to production with their products with Sivers inside.

In the report, Sivers announced three new design wins in the 5G area. One of these includes a large global client that is believed to launch a product in 2026 with a total volume of around 1 million units from 2026 to 2028. We believe that a possible average selling price is likely to be somewhere between USD20-35, which would translate into almost SEK100m of annual revenues. This implies significant potential and exceeds our previous low 5G hopes.

On the back of the Q2 report, we raise our estimates for Wireless for 2026 and beyond by c9%. Meanwhile, we make small upward adjustments for OPEX, while slightly reducing our estimated gross margin. All in all, our EBITDA estimates are raised by 11% for 2026e and 2027e. As a result, we raise our fair value range from SEK3-20 to SEK3-22 with Base Case raised from SEK13 to SEK14.