Acconeer: High hopes on new CEO

Research Update

2024-07-22

07:25

Analyst Q&A

Closed

Jesper von Koch answered 12 questions.

Redeye thinks the Q2 report was strong in all aspects. In the earnings call, Redeye was impressed by new CEO, Ted Hansson, who will likely launch a new go-to-market strategy within a few months. Going for fewer but much larger customers through close and strong relationships with key decision makers will be a cornerstone in this - while maintaining a strict cost control. Following the report, the Redeye Rating has been re-evaluated and lowered - leading to a higher WACC and thus a reduced fair value range.

JV

Jesper Von Koch

Contents

Investment thesis

Follow-up on financial KPIs

New CEO with grand plans

Changes to financial estimates

Fair value range

Quality Rating

Financials

Rating definitions

The team

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Strong Q2 on both revenues and customer launches

Redeye concludes that Q2 was stronger than Redeye had expected and, in fact, the strongest quarter in Acconeer's history with SEK15m of sales and SEK-7m in EBIT. Product sales were 13% above estimates, stemming from both high module and sensor sales. Also, the number of customer launches reached an outstanding 18, which is by a wide margin also an new high. In particular, Industry & Agriculture with the level-measurement application had great success.

New CEO eager to create new go-to-market strategy, but with strict cost control

For new CEO, Ted Hansson, a new go-to-market strategy is top priority and is likely to be launched within a couple of months. Hansson aims to increase focus on direct sales by building strong relationships with core stakeholders at blueship companies. Hansson emphazises that he prefers a handful of very large customers, rather than a hundred insignificant customers. Hansson has an impressive business network amongst relevant Asian electronics manufacturing companies, which are likely to be leveraged. While having a clear sales focus, he is clear about maintaining a very strict cost control.

Lowered Redeye Rating reduces fair value range

Following Q2, we make negligable changes to our financial estimates. With a new CEO in place, we have re-evaluated our Redeye Rating of People, Business and Financials. We have lowered our People and Business ratings from 4 to 3, whereas Financials is intact at 2. Following this, we raise our WACC from 12% to 14%. This makes a big impression on our fair value range, which is lowered from SEK8-28 to SEK6-25, with Base Case of SEK15 (17).

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Revenues46.835.564.9153.6242.0
Revenue Growth50.4%-24.1%82.5%137%57.6%
EBITDA-36.3-37.4-19.223.568.7
EBIT-47.2-46.8-23.57.548.7
EBIT Margin-101%-132%-36.1%4.9%20.1%
Net Income-47.1-46.8-23.57.548.7
EV/EBIT-2.3-4.00.239.76.1
P/E-4.2-4.1-8.560.99.3

Investment thesis

Case

Strong unique product offering & scalability from unmatched cost

Acconeer’s radar of 5x5x1 mm is the tiniest radar on the market, which means unmatched cost. Other radars are more than three times larger, suggesting that they have at least three times the cost. The real claim to fame though, and the truly disruptive element in Acconeer’s offering, is the power consumption, which is more than 10 times lower than competing radars. Combining these characteristics and its fabless business model with the largest manufacturing partners in the World (Amkor & Global Foundries), Acconeer is poised to scale rapidly with high gross margins as soon as sales kick in. Acconeer is ready to ride the structural growth in large market segments e.g. IoT, automotive, and robotics respectively. We believe automotive will be the company's most important market. While there are several promising application areas, we still think automotive has the highest potential.

Evidence

Automotive has the largest potential

Acconeer is working on ten use cases in automotive with its tier-1 partner Alps Alpine, of which the most exciting is child presence detection (CPD) since it is being mandated by in Europe from 2022 to 2023, and likely soon in the US. Thus, most OEMs are procuring or are about to procure CPD. We believe Acconeer has a strong competitive advantage in CPD. Acconeer has won four design wins with at least four OEMs - Volvo (incl. Polestar), General Motors, Stellantis (Redeye est.) and one Japanese OEM. We estimate the TAM in automotive to be c.SEK5bn.

Challenge

Minor size than competitors

Acconeer’s minor size is a disadvantage that likely explains why major players like Google want to go with Infineon. Acconeer needs to start building revenue sources in order to become reliable as a long-term supplier for large customers.

Challenge

More financing needed before turning cash-flow positive?

Acconeer has built up a big inventory of wafers in advance of its anticipated revenue acceleration. This, together with a somewhat postponed inflection point in revenues, have put pressure on Acconeer's balance sheet. In Q2'23, Acconeer was provided a loan facility of SEK60m to be called on from 1 October 2023. We assess that Acconeer's inventory level will not go higher than cSEK55m (in the near term), which is close to today's level. From Q4'23 or Q1'24, we assess that Acconeer's inventory will decrease throughout the year, leading to improved cash flow. Stemming from reduced inventory and accelerated sales, we expect Acconeer to reach breakeven on a cash-flow basis in Q3 or Q4 2024. In our Base and Bull Cases, we do not anticipate the need of additional financing, wherase we include a 10% dilution in our Bear Case.

Valuation

A case that will likely keep surprising on the upside

Acconeer's technology is new, and it is yet difficult to assess all use cases that will adopt this technology in the future - and the TAM for these. This makes Acconeer very hard to predict revenue wise. However, we do see a clearly defined TAM in Automotive, combined with relative ease about asseissing future market share for Acconeer. Only this segment account for 2026e sales of more than SEK300m, and more than two thirds of our total estimated revenue for that year. Acconeer's CEO has however said that he cannot see any scenario in which Automotive account for such big share of total revenues. As such and especially in the long run, we believe revenue growth can surprise on the upside as more use cases appear.

Follow-up on financial KPIs

Redeye concludes that Q2 was stronger than Redeye had expected and, in fact, the strongest quarter in Acconeer's history. Product sales were 13% above estimates, stemming from both high module and sensor sales. Also, the number of customer launches reached an outstanding 18, which is by a wide margin also an new high.

Source: Redeye Research

The sequential increase from SEK11m to SEK15m of net sales was mainly driven by customers in Industry & Agriculture for the level-measurement application. Four new car models were also launched during Q2, two of which had two use cases - Volvo EX90 and Polestar 3 with both presence detection and kick sensor. As such, we expect Automotive to be an important growth driver during H2.

While revenues were ahead of our estimates, so was the cost base. As such, we will make a slight upward adjustment to our cost estimates.

New CEO with grand plans

Less than one month into his new job, we had quite a long chat with new CEO Ted Hansson — watch the Live Q here. From it, our impression of him is that he is a very straightforward, no-bullshit person who says it like it is.

Strong and much relevant track record

His experience from Fingerprint Cards is very impressive, and while he did not want to brag about it, it was in fact him that brought in Huawei as a customer to Fingerprint Cards.

His experience from working in Asia for more than 20 years has made him strongly emphasize the importance of building relationships with potential customers. And by this, he emphasizes personal connections with ALL stakeholders involved in an upcoming decision - because if one stakeholder says 'no', you will not get the deal.

New go-to-market strategy upcoming - direct relationships a cornerstone

Top priority for the next coming months is to launch a new go-to-market strategy. While it remains to be published, we assume the cornerstone of it will be to go after the really big players in some selected niches. Hansson states that Acconeer has built a very good foundation with an amazing and really innovative product, which has also been 'tested' on a variety of customers through Acconeer's distribution network.

Fewer but much larger customers

In the new strategy, Hansson is likely to keep the existing distribution networks. However, to reach Acconeer's full revenue potential, the company needs fewer but much larger customers. As such, we believe Acconeer will aim for a handful of really significant customers rather than a hundred small but insignificant customers.

We think new strategy will move resources from engineering to sales

On the question regarding if this will imply growing the organization and put more people into sales, we were not given a clear answer. However, Hansson said that he does not aim to grow the cost base but that the new strategy will determine how resources will be divided. In between the lines, we think Hansson meant that resources would be moved from engineering into sales/customer relations.

Hansson emphasizes the importance of being very close to the customer - so that everyone know what needs to be done rather than assuming or guessing what the customer wants.

Existing relationships important to open doors

During his 20 years in Asia, Hansson has worked with most electronics manufacturing companies, all distributors, all the foundries, all OSATs (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (manufacturing) vendors), all logistics companies, etc. This is definitely something that Acconeer can leverage.

Having seen the problems that will inevitably arise as Acconeer establishes itself properly on the Asian market, Hansson believes it will be easier to handle these.

Hansson says that he will use his relationships to ensure Acconeer gets the right pricing and support from suppliers. However, he also aims to open doors to enter the right brand names with Acconeer's products.

Changes to financial estimates

Following the Q2 report, we make limited changes to our estimates.

Acconeer: Estimate changes

SEKm20222023Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24EQ4 24E2024E2025E2026E2027E
Total net sales47361115
New172165154242347
Old172164154243348
Change0%0%2%0%0%0%
Gross margin (products)59%60%62%61%
New60%60%60%59%58%58%
Old60%60%59%59%58%58%
Change0%0%1%0%0%0%
OPEX67161517
New171862717682
Old161860717980
Change0%0%3%1%-3%2%
EBIT-47-47-8-7
New-4-4-2374998
Old-3-4-22104189
Change0%0%8%-22%20%11%
EBIT (%)-101%-132%-69%-48%
New-23%-21%-36%5%20%28%
Old-18%-18%-34%6%17%25%
Change-4%-3%-2%-1%3%3%

Acconeer: Financial estimates

SEKm20222023Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24EQ4 24E2024E2025E2026E2027E
Revenues47361115172165154242347
- of which Product Sales3926813151955143232336
Gross Profit312681011144395145206
EBITDA-36-37-7-6-3-3-192369124
EBIT-47-47-8-7-4-4-2374998
EPS (SEK)-1.7-1.8-0.3-0.3-0.1-0.2-0.90.10.81.3
Growth (%)50%-24%12%137%107%98%83%138%108%58%
Gross margin59%62%56%61%60%60%60%59%58%58%
EBITDA margin (%)-77%-105%-64%-39%-18%-14%-30%15%28%36%
EBIT margin (%)-101%-132%-69%-48%-23%-21%-36%5%20%28%

Fair value range

With a new CEO in place, we have re-evaluated our Redeye Rating of People, Business and Financials. Following this exercise, we have lowered our People and Business ratings from 4 to 3, whereas Financials is intact at 2. Following this, we raise our weighted average cost of capital (WACC) from 12% to 14%. This makes a big impression on our fair value range, which is lowered from SEK8-28 to SEK6-25, with Base Case of SEK15 (17).

Assumptions, fair value range
Bear CaseBase caseBull case
Value per share, SEK61525
Sales CAGR 2022-202750%49%73%
Total sales 2027, SEKm360500700
Breakeven year202520242023
Avg EBIT margin 2024-202712%21%25%
EBIT margin 202720%30%35%
Terminal EBIT margin12%15%20%
WACC14.0%14.0%14.0%

Quality Rating

People: 3

With a new CEO in place, the management team is unproven in its current form. Neverheless, CEO Ted Hansson has a very strong track record from building Fingerprint Cards' whole success amongst mobile-phone players in Asia. The management and board is otherwise filled with people from previous executive positions at companies like Ericsson and Sony Mobile. Acconeer has active main owners represented on the Board and in general the Board own lots of shares. We would prefer a bit higher commitment from insiders in Management though. However, we note that the two co-founders own 3 percent each and we like the fact that they are still working in the company as CTO and COO respectively. Aside of insider buying another potential upside to the ownership score is institutional investors eventually discovering Acconeer and buying into the company.

Business: 3

The power efficient sensor has minimal cost and footprint, which together with Acconeer’s fabless business model will make Acconeer scale rapidly with high margins when sales kick in. Adding the major, global partners in manufacturing and distribution, Acconeer seems ready to meet the demand and ride the strong, structural trends in e.g. automotive, IoT and robotics, although these trends will of course entice severe competition down the road. The interest for Acconeer’s solution is strong with a large group of customers testing the technology. However, the jury is still out in the sense that it is still early stage and there are not much news of won deals yet, which is a risk factor.

Financials: 2

Since Acconeer is not yet profitable our fully retrospective profitability rating can be no more than zero at the moment. The scalability and the low cost base imply a good outlook for profitability in the future. At that point the rating would start to gradually increase. The rather early stage with a limited product portfolio and no stable earnings or revenue weighs on the financial stability score. In addition, it is too soon to understand what the customer base will look like in terms of differentiation etc., which adds uncertainty. However, the company has a large cash position and an MoU deal with financing from its partner Alps Alpine. We think the cash will suffice at least until the end of 2023.

Financials

Rating definitions

The team

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Contents

Investment thesis

Follow-up on financial KPIs

New CEO with grand plans

Changes to financial estimates

Fair value range

Quality Rating

Financials

Rating definitions

The team

Download article