Acconeer: High hopes on new CEO
Research Update
2024-07-22
07:25
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Jesper von Koch answered 12 questions.
Redeye thinks the Q2 report was strong in all aspects. In the earnings call, Redeye was impressed by new CEO, Ted Hansson, who will likely launch a new go-to-market strategy within a few months. Going for fewer but much larger customers through close and strong relationships with key decision makers will be a cornerstone in this - while maintaining a strict cost control. Following the report, the Redeye Rating has been re-evaluated and lowered - leading to a higher WACC and thus a reduced fair value range.
Jesper Von Koch
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Redeye concludes that Q2 was stronger than Redeye had expected and, in fact, the strongest quarter in Acconeer's history with SEK15m of sales and SEK-7m in EBIT. Product sales were 13% above estimates, stemming from both high module and sensor sales. Also, the number of customer launches reached an outstanding 18, which is by a wide margin also an new high. In particular, Industry & Agriculture with the level-measurement application had great success.
For new CEO, Ted Hansson, a new go-to-market strategy is top priority and is likely to be launched within a couple of months. Hansson aims to increase focus on direct sales by building strong relationships with core stakeholders at blueship companies. Hansson emphazises that he prefers a handful of very large customers, rather than a hundred insignificant customers. Hansson has an impressive business network amongst relevant Asian electronics manufacturing companies, which are likely to be leveraged. While having a clear sales focus, he is clear about maintaining a very strict cost control.
Following Q2, we make negligable changes to our financial estimates. With a new CEO in place, we have re-evaluated our Redeye Rating of People, Business and Financials. We have lowered our People and Business ratings from 4 to 3, whereas Financials is intact at 2. Following this, we raise our WACC from 12% to 14%. This makes a big impression on our fair value range, which is lowered from SEK8-28 to SEK6-25, with Base Case of SEK15 (17).
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 46.8 | 35.5 | 64.9 | 153.6 | 242.0 |
Revenue Growth | 50.4% | -24.1% | 82.5% | 137% | 57.6% |
EBITDA | -36.3 | -37.4 | -19.2 | 23.5 | 68.7 |
EBIT | -47.2 | -46.8 | -23.5 | 7.5 | 48.7 |
EBIT Margin | -101% | -132% | -36.1% | 4.9% | 20.1% |
Net Income | -47.1 | -46.8 | -23.5 | 7.5 | 48.7 |
EV/EBIT | -2.3 | -4.0 | 0.2 | 39.7 | 6.1 |
P/E | -4.2 | -4.1 | -8.5 | 60.9 | 9.3 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
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Investment thesis
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