Acconeer: High hopes on new CEO
Research Update
2024-07-22
07:25
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Jesper von Koch answered 12 questions.
Redeye thinks the Q2 report was strong in all aspects. In the earnings call, Redeye was impressed by new CEO, Ted Hansson, who will likely launch a new go-to-market strategy within a few months. Going for fewer but much larger customers through close and strong relationships with key decision makers will be a cornerstone in this - while maintaining a strict cost control. Following the report, the Redeye Rating has been re-evaluated and lowered - leading to a higher WACC and thus a reduced fair value range.
JV
Jesper Von Koch
Contents
Investment thesis
Follow-up on financial KPIs
New CEO with grand plans
Changes to financial estimates
Fair value range
Quality Rating
Financials
Rating definitions
The team
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Redeye concludes that Q2 was stronger than Redeye had expected and, in fact, the strongest quarter in Acconeer's history with SEK15m of sales and SEK-7m in EBIT. Product sales were 13% above estimates, stemming from both high module and sensor sales. Also, the number of customer launches reached an outstanding 18, which is by a wide margin also an new high. In particular, Industry & Agriculture with the level-measurement application had great success.
For new CEO, Ted Hansson, a new go-to-market strategy is top priority and is likely to be launched within a couple of months. Hansson aims to increase focus on direct sales by building strong relationships with core stakeholders at blueship companies. Hansson emphazises that he prefers a handful of very large customers, rather than a hundred insignificant customers. Hansson has an impressive business network amongst relevant Asian electronics manufacturing companies, which are likely to be leveraged. While having a clear sales focus, he is clear about maintaining a very strict cost control.
Following Q2, we make negligable changes to our financial estimates. With a new CEO in place, we have re-evaluated our Redeye Rating of People, Business and Financials. We have lowered our People and Business ratings from 4 to 3, whereas Financials is intact at 2. Following this, we raise our WACC from 12% to 14%. This makes a big impression on our fair value range, which is lowered from SEK8-28 to SEK6-25, with Base Case of SEK15 (17).
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 46.8 | 35.5 | 64.9 | 153.6 | 242.0 |
Revenue Growth | 50.4% | -24.1% | 82.5% | 137% | 57.6% |
EBITDA | -36.3 | -37.4 | -19.2 | 23.5 | 68.7 |
EBIT | -47.2 | -46.8 | -23.5 | 7.5 | 48.7 |
EBIT Margin | -101% | -132% | -36.1% | 4.9% | 20.1% |
Net Income | -47.1 | -46.8 | -23.5 | 7.5 | 48.7 |
EV/EBIT | -2.3 | -4.0 | 0.2 | 39.7 | 6.1 |
P/E | -4.2 | -4.1 | -8.5 | 60.9 | 9.3 |
Case
Strong unique product offering & scalability from unmatched cost
Evidence
Automotive has the largest potential
Challenge
Minor size than competitors
Challenge
More financing needed before turning cash-flow positive?
Valuation
A case that will likely keep surprising on the upside
Redeye concludes that Q2 was stronger than Redeye had expected and, in fact, the strongest quarter in Acconeer's history. Product sales were 13% above estimates, stemming from both high module and sensor sales. Also, the number of customer launches reached an outstanding 18, which is by a wide margin also an new high.
Source: Redeye Research
The sequential increase from SEK11m to SEK15m of net sales was mainly driven by customers in Industry & Agriculture for the level-measurement application. Four new car models were also launched during Q2, two of which had two use cases - Volvo EX90 and Polestar 3 with both presence detection and kick sensor. As such, we expect Automotive to be an important growth driver during H2.
While revenues were ahead of our estimates, so was the cost base. As such, we will make a slight upward adjustment to our cost estimates.
Less than one month into his new job, we had quite a long chat with new CEO Ted Hansson — watch the Live Q here. From it, our impression of him is that he is a very straightforward, no-bullshit person who says it like it is.
His experience from Fingerprint Cards is very impressive, and while he did not want to brag about it, it was in fact him that brought in Huawei as a customer to Fingerprint Cards.
His experience from working in Asia for more than 20 years has made him strongly emphasize the importance of building relationships with potential customers. And by this, he emphasizes personal connections with ALL stakeholders involved in an upcoming decision - because if one stakeholder says 'no', you will not get the deal.
Top priority for the next coming months is to launch a new go-to-market strategy. While it remains to be published, we assume the cornerstone of it will be to go after the really big players in some selected niches. Hansson states that Acconeer has built a very good foundation with an amazing and really innovative product, which has also been 'tested' on a variety of customers through Acconeer's distribution network.
In the new strategy, Hansson is likely to keep the existing distribution networks. However, to reach Acconeer's full revenue potential, the company needs fewer but much larger customers. As such, we believe Acconeer will aim for a handful of really significant customers rather than a hundred small but insignificant customers.
On the question regarding if this will imply growing the organization and put more people into sales, we were not given a clear answer. However, Hansson said that he does not aim to grow the cost base but that the new strategy will determine how resources will be divided. In between the lines, we think Hansson meant that resources would be moved from engineering into sales/customer relations.
Hansson emphasizes the importance of being very close to the customer - so that everyone know what needs to be done rather than assuming or guessing what the customer wants.
During his 20 years in Asia, Hansson has worked with most electronics manufacturing companies, all distributors, all the foundries, all OSATs (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (manufacturing) vendors), all logistics companies, etc. This is definitely something that Acconeer can leverage.
Having seen the problems that will inevitably arise as Acconeer establishes itself properly on the Asian market, Hansson believes it will be easier to handle these.
Hansson says that he will use his relationships to ensure Acconeer gets the right pricing and support from suppliers. However, he also aims to open doors to enter the right brand names with Acconeer's products.
Following the Q2 report, we make limited changes to our estimates.
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24E | Q4 24E | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
Total net sales | 47 | 36 | 11 | 15 | ||||||
New | 17 | 21 | 65 | 154 | 242 | 347 | ||||
Old | 17 | 21 | 64 | 154 | 243 | 348 | ||||
Change | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||||
Gross margin (products) | 59% | 60% | 62% | 61% | ||||||
New | 60% | 60% | 60% | 59% | 58% | 58% | ||||
Old | 60% | 60% | 59% | 59% | 58% | 58% | ||||
Change | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||||
OPEX | 67 | 16 | 15 | 17 | ||||||
New | 17 | 18 | 62 | 71 | 76 | 82 | ||||
Old | 16 | 18 | 60 | 71 | 79 | 80 | ||||
Change | 0% | 0% | 3% | 1% | -3% | 2% | ||||
EBIT | -47 | -47 | -8 | -7 | ||||||
New | -4 | -4 | -23 | 7 | 49 | 98 | ||||
Old | -3 | -4 | -22 | 10 | 41 | 89 | ||||
Change | 0% | 0% | 8% | -22% | 20% | 11% | ||||
EBIT (%) | -101% | -132% | -69% | -48% | ||||||
New | -23% | -21% | -36% | 5% | 20% | 28% | ||||
Old | -18% | -18% | -34% | 6% | 17% | 25% | ||||
Change | -4% | -3% | -2% | -1% | 3% | 3% |
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24E | Q4 24E | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
Revenues | 47 | 36 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 65 | 154 | 242 | 347 |
- of which Product Sales | 39 | 26 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 19 | 55 | 143 | 232 | 336 |
Gross Profit | 31 | 26 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 43 | 95 | 145 | 206 |
EBITDA | -36 | -37 | -7 | -6 | -3 | -3 | -19 | 23 | 69 | 124 |
EBIT | -47 | -47 | -8 | -7 | -4 | -4 | -23 | 7 | 49 | 98 |
EPS (SEK) | -1.7 | -1.8 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.9 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
Growth (%) | 50% | -24% | 12% | 137% | 107% | 98% | 83% | 138% | 108% | 58% |
Gross margin | 59% | 62% | 56% | 61% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 59% | 58% | 58% |
EBITDA margin (%) | -77% | -105% | -64% | -39% | -18% | -14% | -30% | 15% | 28% | 36% |
EBIT margin (%) | -101% | -132% | -69% | -48% | -23% | -21% | -36% | 5% | 20% | 28% |
With a new CEO in place, we have re-evaluated our Redeye Rating of People, Business and Financials. Following this exercise, we have lowered our People and Business ratings from 4 to 3, whereas Financials is intact at 2. Following this, we raise our weighted average cost of capital (WACC) from 12% to 14%. This makes a big impression on our fair value range, which is lowered from SEK8-28 to SEK6-25, with Base Case of SEK15 (17).
Assumptions, fair value range | |||
Bear Case | Base case | Bull case | |
Value per share, SEK | 6 | 15 | 25 |
Sales CAGR 2022-2027 | 50% | 49% | 73% |
Total sales 2027, SEKm | 360 | 500 | 700 |
Breakeven year | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
Avg EBIT margin 2024-2027 | 12% | 21% | 25% |
EBIT margin 2027 | 20% | 30% | 35% |
Terminal EBIT margin | 12% | 15% | 20% |
WACC | 14.0% | 14.0% | 14.0% |
People: 3
With a new CEO in place, the management team is unproven in its current form. Neverheless, CEO Ted Hansson has a very strong track record from building Fingerprint Cards' whole success amongst mobile-phone players in Asia. The management and board is otherwise filled with people from previous executive positions at companies like Ericsson and Sony Mobile. Acconeer has active main owners represented on the Board and in general the Board own lots of shares. We would prefer a bit higher commitment from insiders in Management though. However, we note that the two co-founders own 3 percent each and we like the fact that they are still working in the company as CTO and COO respectively. Aside of insider buying another potential upside to the ownership score is institutional investors eventually discovering Acconeer and buying into the company.
Business: 3
The power efficient sensor has minimal cost and footprint, which together with Acconeer’s fabless business model will make Acconeer scale rapidly with high margins when sales kick in. Adding the major, global partners in manufacturing and distribution, Acconeer seems ready to meet the demand and ride the strong, structural trends in e.g. automotive, IoT and robotics, although these trends will of course entice severe competition down the road. The interest for Acconeer’s solution is strong with a large group of customers testing the technology. However, the jury is still out in the sense that it is still early stage and there are not much news of won deals yet, which is a risk factor.
Financials: 2
Since Acconeer is not yet profitable our fully retrospective profitability rating can be no more than zero at the moment. The scalability and the low cost base imply a good outlook for profitability in the future. At that point the rating would start to gradually increase. The rather early stage with a limited product portfolio and no stable earnings or revenue weighs on the financial stability score. In addition, it is too soon to understand what the customer base will look like in terms of differentiation etc., which adds uncertainty. However, the company has a large cash position and an MoU deal with financing from its partner Alps Alpine. We think the cash will suffice at least until the end of 2023.
Disclosures and disclaimers
Contents
Investment thesis
Follow-up on financial KPIs
New CEO with grand plans
Changes to financial estimates
Fair value range
Quality Rating
Financials
Rating definitions
The team
Download article