Hanza: Soft Quarter – Encouraging Outlook
Research Update
2024-07-24
06:45
Redeye retains its positive stance towards Hanza despite a softer Q2 report than expected regarding sales and margins. However, Hanza sees a strong inflow of new customers and expects a volume rebound in late 2024. We keep our mid- and long-term forecasts largely changed and expect Hanza to reach its 8% EBITA margin target in 2025.
Fredrik Nilsson
Fredrik Reuterhäll
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Sales was 5% short of our expectations and amounted to SEK1,221m (1,068). The organic growth was -8% y/y. As seen in recent quarters, Hanza has not lost any customers, but the softer macroeconomic environment has resulted in lower customer demand in some areas. On the other hand, Hanza sees strong new sales from a broad range of sectors, following a greater need for cost-efficient manufacturing in the softer economic environment. Historically, about half of Hanza’s sales growth has come from new customers, implying that strong sales to new customers should boost growth in the coming quarters.
EBITA (adjusted for restructuring cost of SEK20m) was SEK70m (92), corresponding to an EBITA margin of 5.7% (8.6). Our forecast was SEK80m and 6.2%. The EBITA margin started improving during the latter parts of the quarter following the completion of the integration and efficiency programs, suggesting that there are further improvements in margins to expect over the next quarters. Regarding Orbit One, we are encouraged to see the integration already being completed, as we did expect it to be completed in late 2024.
We retain our Base Case at SEK 73 (73) following roughly unchanged mid- and long-term forecasts. We expect SEK5.5bn in sales (with no future M&A) and 8.0% in EBITA margin. Management seems confident in reaching SEK6.5bn (with M&A) and an 8% EBITA margin in 2025, and we see solid upside potential if the 2025 targets are reached.
SEKm | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e | 2027e |
Revenues | 4,154.0 | 5,063.2 | 5,535.3 | 5,866.7 | 6,218.0 |
Revenue Growth | 16.4% | 21.9% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% |
EBITDA | 464.7 | 451.1 | 608.8 | 658.3 | 714.9 |
EBIT | 328.0 | 264.6 | 417.1 | 460.7 | 506.3 |
EBIT Margin | 7.9% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% |
Net Income | 215.0 | 104.3 | 208.1 | 244.4 | 282.2 |
EV/Sales | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
EV/EBIT | 11.2 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 5.7 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
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