Respiratorius: Undramatic quarter
Research Update
2024-08-06
10:25
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Martin Wahlström answered 0 questions.
Redeye provides a research update following the Q2 2024 report from Respiratorius. We postpone the estimated timing of a licensing deal to 2025e and provide an overview of the sentiment in the biopharma deal landscape. We also make minor other changes related to the valuation, resulting in a reduced fair value range.
Martin Wahlström
The cash position ended the quarter at cSEK1.3m, with a quarterly burn rate of SEK-1.0m. The proceeds from the rights issue will hit the company's books in Q3. The company’s cost control remains solid, which we believe is appropriate as the focus should be on minimising the burn rate until a deal is announced. However, following the completed rights issue, we would not be suprised by a slight uptick in the burn rate as the cash enables more focus on business development.
The rights issue outcome was announced in the quarter, and we have previously commented on it in a separate note (see publication from June 24). The offering was subscribed to 50%, of which c41% was subscribed with and without unit rights and the remainder represented guarantee commitments. After quarter end, a directed issue was carried out to guarantors as compensation, which increases dilution but reduces cash expenses.
Following an uptick in deal activity that has not been as rapid as expected, we postpone the timing of a licensing deal to 2025e, which has a negative impact on our valuation due to the increased discount and our costs for 2025e no longer being adjusted for deal likelihood. We also account for the dilution from the directed issue to guarantors and make a few minor other changes. Our new fair value range is SEK0.03(0.03)-0.44(0,55), with a Base Case of SEK0.17(0.22) per share.
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.2 | 0.0 |
Revenue Growth | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. | -100% |
EBITDA | -35.3 | -4.8 | -6.0 | 28.2 | -2.4 |
EBIT | -39.0 | -8.0 | -7.3 | 26.9 | -3.7 |
EBIT Margin | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. |
Net Income | -39.0 | -8.0 | -7.3 | 26.9 | -3.7 |
EV/Sales | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. |
EV/EBIT | -1.7 | -8.1 | -8.9 | 2.4 | -17.7 |
The Q2 2024 report was mostly in line with our estimates, and the deviations are irrelevant in absolute amounts. Cost control remains tight, which is to be expected. Nevertheless, we wouldn’t be surprised if costs ticked up somewhat during the upcoming quarter, as the refreshed cash position following the rights issue enables slightly more focus on business development.
Respiratorius: Estimates vs actual figures | |||||
SEKm | Q2 2024e | Q2 2024a | Diff vs est | Q2 2023a | Growth y/y |
Revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | n/a | 0.00 | n/a |
Growth y/y (%) | n/a | n/a | |||
OPEX | -1.3 | -1.0 | -23% | -1.1 | 18% |
Growth y/y (%) | 18% | -10% | |||
EBITDA | -1.3 | -1.0 | -27% | -1.7 | -22% |
Growth y/y (%) | -22% | -43% | |||
Source: Redeye research |
Disclosures and disclaimers