The top line came in above our expectations. We had forecast sales of cSEK7m versus the actual cSEK8m. We judge the growth in Q2 is in line with Oncopeptides' plans. Costs, however, increased slightly more Q/Q than we had anticipated (SEK-80m versus our estimated SEK-76m), though there is some variability in costs between quarters which likely explains this. This is still early days in the sales roll out, but the growth trend thus far supports our forecast (key financials below).

Adjusting for a positive effect in working capital (VAT of SEK105 that will be repaid in Q3), the cash position was SEK280m at the end of Q2. This can be compared with the operating cash flow of SEK-69m in Q2. According to the company's projections, this is enough to cover all costs until positive cash flow in late 2026. Redeye has a more conservative forecast, assuming the two EIB tranches worth EUR20m together will be drawn before a positive cash flow is reached. As the commercialisation in Spain begins in earnest in H2 this year, together with further sales growth in Germany, with operating costs comparatively stable, we expect the loss to decrease in the coming quarters, so the runway is likely longer than four quarters (assuming no sales growth).

We have increased our sales forecast for 2024-2026 slightly, while essentially maintaining the long-term market share. Our base case remains SEK6.