Raketech: Soft start to Q3, but will likely be the low point of the year
Research Update
2024-08-15
06:49
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Hjalmar Ahlberg answered 3 questions.
Redeye updates on Raketech following its Q2-results where topline was weaker than expected while profitability was stronger than forecasted. We have trimmed our forecasts on the back of the soft start to Q3 and a slightly lowered guidance for 2024E.
Hjalmar Ahlberg
Anton Hoof
Raketech reported revenue of EUR17m and EBITDA of EUR4.4m for Q2 2024, which can be compared to our forecasts of EUR18m and EUR4.0m respectively. The stronger than expected profitability was driven by a higher mix of revenue from Affiliation and solid gross margin in Sub-affiliation.
Raketech reported that Q3 has started soft with revenue of EUR4.6m in July, however it expects revenue to pick up later in the quarter and we believe Q3 will be the low point of the year. Still, the company also updated its guidance where it now targets EBITDA of EUR17m-19m compared to around EUR20m previously.
Overall, we have lowered our estimates somewhat with EBITDA coming down by 3-5% for 2024-26E. On the back of the lowered estimates, we also adjusted our valuation range where the new base case stands at SEK32 (SEK33). Our base case implies c6-7x EV/EBITDA 2024-25E while the share currently trades at c2x EV/EBITDA 2024-25E (including earnouts).
| EURm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
| Revenues | 52.6 | 77.7 | 70.1 | 77.3 | 86.1 |
| Revenue Growth | 26.6% | 47.6% | -9.8% | 10.3% | 11.4% |
| EBITDA | 20.0 | 23.2 | 18.4 | 22.8 | 25.8 |
| EBIT | 12.4 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 14.8 | 23.8 |
| EBIT Margin | 23.5% | 14.5% | 10.5% | 19.1% | 27.7% |
| Net Income | 8.3 | 6.6 | -6.9 | 12.2 | 21.4 |
| EV/Sales | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| EV/EBITDA (inc. earnout) | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
Raketech reported revenue of EUR17m and EBITDA of EUR4.4m for Q2 2024, which can be compared to our forecasts of EUR18m and EUR4.0m respectively. The softer than expected topline was mainly due to lower revenue from Sub-affiliation which can vary on a quarterly basis and is difficult to forecast in the short-term. Gross-margin for Sub-affiliation was 23%, which was in line with Q1 and slightly higher than our forecast of 22%. Affiliation, which has higher profitability than Sub-affiliation, was close to our forecast and supported the stronger than expected EBITDA-margin. Looking at the revenue per region, Nordics was softer than expected while Europe, US and RoW was in line with our expectations. Reported EBIT was below our forecast due to the impairment of the divested US assets, which we had expected to be recorded in Q3. The table below shows the Q2-results outcome compared to our expectations.
Disclosures and disclaimers