Smart Eye: A bump in the road

Research Update

2024-08-22

07:25

Analyst Q&A

Closed

Jesper von Koch answered 17 questions.

Redeye states that the Q2 report came in weaker than expected, with both sales and costs surprising negatively. While the automotive ramp-up appeared to have paused in Q2, Redeye expects the momentum to be regained from Q3 and onwards. The number of car models launched per quarter has gone from an average of 4 in 2023, now increasing to 10 in 2024, and 25-30 is expected in 2025. Adding that the fitment rate in each car model should also increase as EU GSR 2024 is implemented since 7 July, Redeye expects the Q2 hiccup to only be a bump in the road. Redeye reduces its estimates and valuation range.

Jesper Von Koch

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Soft Q2 with slow sales and high costs - but positive momentum to be regained from Q3

Total revenue was SEK89.6m, +30% y/y but 8% below our estimates of SEK97.6m. Mainly, Automotive Solutions came in lower than we had estimated, partly due to less NRE revenues compared to last year. EBITDA was SEK -23m and EBITDA-CAPEX was SEK -48m, missing our estimates of SEK -4m and SEK -28m respectively. OPEX was higher than we had estimated, mainly stemming from salary revisions in R&D. However, with a typical six-month lag from start of production to full production for each car model, the increased pace of cars reaching production should bolster growth from Q3 and onwards.

Break-even pushed to Q1/Q2'25

Smart Eye's estimated timing for break-even (on cash-flow basis) has been pushed forward by one quarter - from Q4'24/Q1'25, to the new estimate being Q1-Q2'25. With SEK192m in available cash, we still consider Smart Eye's balance sheet solid.

Lowering estimates - Base Case SEK140

On the back of the Q2 report, we increase estimates on costs while lowering sales estimates, leading to reducing our 2026e EBITDA estimates by 20%. Following this, we reduce our fair value range from SEK50-210 to SEK45-190, with Base Case lowered from SEK155 to SEK140. At SEK90 per share, we estimate Smart Eye to be trading at 9.2x FCF on 2026e and 5.7x FCF on 2027e.

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Revenues219.6302.2389.5622.11,152.0
Revenue Growth101%37.6%28.9%59.7%85.2%
EBITDA-193.9-127.7-70.693.5441.7
EBIT-343.0-282.9-232.2-70.5306.7
EBIT Margin-156%-93.6%-59.6%-11.3%26.6%
Net Income-339.9-283.3-229.6-56.0306.7
EV/Sales14.410.27.95.02.4
EV/FCF-8.6-9.4-26.8-83.38.0

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