Precise Biometrics: On track despite quarterly variations

Research Update

2024-08-19

07:05

Analyst Q&A

Closed

Martin Wahlström answered 4 questions.

Redeye provides a research update following the Q2 2024 report from Precise Biometrics. The report was slightly below our estimates, although the deviation was in line with what we expect to see in terms of quarterly variations. Biometric Technologies reported sales growth against last year but below the strong performance from the previous quarter. Perfomance in Digital Identity was roughly as anticipated, with a continued increase in the ARR. We make minor changes to our estimates and fair value range.

Martin Wahlström

Biometric Technologies down sequentially, still solid

Biometric Technologies delivered sales of SEK15.1m, 11% below our estimates but 24% higher than last year. The reported figure represents a sequential decline, although quarterly variations are inevitable given the structure of the company's business model. The gross margin was 85% in the quarter, flat q/q and up an impressive 6pp against last year.

Digital Identity flat y/y, a higher share of recurring revenues

Digital Identity had sales of SEK5.5m in the quarter, against our forecasted SEK6.0m and 2% below last year's SEK5.6m. Nevertheless, the ARR reached SEK18.6m in the quarter and now represents a larger share of revenue through a sequential uptick from SEK18.3m in the first quarter. We continue to view growth in the ARR to be one of the primary components of the investment case. Increasing ARR provides a base around which other, relatively lumpy, revenue can oscillate.

Estimate and valuation changes

Following the report, we make only smaller estimate changes. This includes a slight decrease of sales for both segments over the 2024e-2026e forecasting period. We maintain our ARR forecast, given that there seems to be a shift within Digital Identity, where more of the sales are becoming subscription based. We also maintain our gross margin and make a few other minor estimate changes. Our fair value range is SEK1.0 (1.0) to SEK4.6 (4.6), with a Base Case of SEK2.6 (2.7) per share.

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Revenues91.075.188.7104.8121.1
Revenue Growth9.2%-17.5%18.1%18.2%15.5%
EBITDA1.1-1.79.819.030.5
EBIT-20.0-26.5-14.5-5.26.3
EBIT Margin-22.0%-35.2%-16.3%-5.0%5.2%
Net Income-22.0-26.5-14.5-5.85.9
EV/Sales1.70.74.03.42.8
EV/EBIT-7.7-2.1-24.7-67.453.3

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