Egetis Therapeutics Q2: Eventful quarter

Research Update

2024-08-23

09:30

Analyst Q&A

Closed

Fredrik Thor answered 7 questions.

Redeye returns with an updated view of Egetis Therapeutics following the Q2 report and recent events in the company. We mostly reiterate our stance to the company but have made some adjustments based on the TRIAC II results and revised assumptions for the ReTRIACt trial.

Fredrik Thor

Report in line with expectations

As expected, the report in itself contained no surprises. OPEX landed at -SEK86m, which is around the average level of recent quarters. We largely reiterate our OPEX assumptions. Egetis's cash position amounted to some SEK192.6m, not including the remaining loan facility of EUR15m, which is contingent upon Egetis reaching certain milestones (amongst others, we judge, related to ReTRIACt).

Eventful quarter

The report indicates that 6 patients have completed the ReTRIACt study, with 2 more set to be randomized and 6 patients scheduled for screening within the next six weeks. The placebo-controlled, randomized study will conclude once a total of 16 patients have completed it. We now expect a readout in the first half of 2025, hopefully in Q1. This would indicate an approval in late 2025 and likely a voucher sale in early 2026. In the EU, Egetis announced earlier in August that it had responded to the EMA 120-day list of questions, in line with the previously communicated timeline. The next step is the 180-day list of questions. In addition to the regulatory processes, we also cover the TRIAC II trial, a recent abstract on survival rates in Emcitate patients, and the guideline recommendation from the ETA.

Slight downward adjustments

We mostly reiterate our previous stance, but make some adjustments following the TRIAC II outcome and pushed assumptions for the US launch following following our assumption that the ReTRIACt study will now conclude in 2025. As a result, we arrive at a base case valuation of SEK 15 (17.5) per share.

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Total Revenue22.657.675.798.2613.3
EBITDA-195.4-321.3-303.9-251.8243.3
EBIT-198.1-324.9-305.1-252.8237.1
EBIT Margin-877%-564%-403%-257%38.7%
Net Income-193.8-326.9-321.0-287.1238.1

Disclosures and disclaimers

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