New results were published from the phase IIa study of fostrox+Lenvima in advanced liver cancer (n=21) at ESMO GI in June 2024. With a Kaplan-Meyer estimate, the time to progression is 10.8 months. This is actually better than the first-line PFS of atezolizumab+bevacizumab of 6.8 months. It is especially encouraging considering the population could be defined as all comers, including some third-line patients. New data also showed fostrox had no to a very moderate effect on liver function. Fostrox is almost ready for the phase IIb study. The main activity missing is completion of larger scale chemistry, manufacturing and controls. The IND to start the study will be submitted in the next few months, likely before December. A new readout of fostrox will be presented at ESMO in September. Medivir raised money late in 2023 and early 2024 to allow the fostrox data to mature and prepare for the pivotal phase IIb study. We believe this has put the company in a stronger position in partnering discussions. With the ESMO readout, we believe the data will have reached a quite mature state, so it makes little sense to wait longer. A deal will have to follow before the end of 2024 if the company is to keep its planning with the start of phase IIb study in early 2025. Medivir has communicated it wishes to out-license fostrox in Asia, while keeping Europe and the US for itself.

The TNG348 programme outlicensed to Tango was cancelled due to toxicity encountered in phase I. We removed it from our valuation, but the effect was minor as we only valued it at SEK29m, so it had no effect on our base case. Some details about the MET-X programme were published in the quarter, which we discuss below.

We have only made minor changes to our forecast and valuation model, restating our base case of SEK9.