Active Biotech Q2 2024: Both Myelofibrosis Studies Soon Recruiting
Research Update
2024-08-23
07:10
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Richard Ramanius answered 2 questions.
Redeye comments on Active Biotech's Q2 report. New results with naptumomab + docetaxel were presented by NeoTX in the quarter, with inconclusive results. The US study in myelofibrosis is ready to recruit the first patient, while the European study is estimated to be ready to begin recruitment in Q3.
Richard Ramanius
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The ocular biodistribution study of laquinimod is ongoing since April and patient recruitment continues. Results are expected this year. A successful outcome could result in a partner deal, which would fund a phase II study in 2025. The American study of tasquinimod in myelofibrosis, conducted at and sponsored by M.D. Anderson, is open and should recruit the first patients shortly, potentially in Q3. The European trial, funded by the Oncode Institute and conducted with the HOVON network, should be ready in Q3, which means the first patient should be recruited in Q3 or Q4. Both trials will run over several years, but a first readout is likely by 2026, as the studies are open label.
New results with naptumomab were presented by NeoTX at ASCO. Out of 38 patients, 32 were evaluable for efficacy. The overall response rate (ORR) was 16% and the disease control rate was 72%. Median overall survival (OS) was 8 months, and mean progression-free survival (PFS ) was 4.6 months. The mean duration of response was 7.3 months. Overall, we find these results inconclusive as they are similar to 2nd line treatment with docetaxel and taxanes.
We do not make any major changes to our assumptions in this update. Our base case is SEK1.4. We assume some more dilution due to a lower share price. The smaller cash position of SEK14m (SEK25m) also contributes to this. We expect the company will announce a new funding very soon, before the end of Q3. According to the Q2 report, several paths have been identified but a decision has not yet been taken.
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.3 | 40.3 |
Revenue Growth | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. | 333% |
EBITDA | -57.9 | -46.5 | -45.0 | -41.0 | -0.28 |
EBIT | -57.9 | -46.5 | -45.0 | -41.0 | -0.28 |
EBIT Margin | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. |
Net Income | -58.4 | -45.8 | -45.0 | -41.0 | -0.28 |
EV/Sales | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. |
EV/EBIT | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 49.5 |
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