Kancera: Progress according to plan
Research Update
2024-08-26
07:15
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Martin Wahlström answered 1 question.
Redeye provides a research update following the Q2 2024 report from Kancera. Costs came in slightly below forecasts driven by lower R&D spend. In the operational update released in conjunction with the report, we learnt that the ongoing KANDOVA study might be conducted with fewer patients than initially thought. We maintain our estimates and make minor valuation changes to account for FX fluctuations and the updated cash position.
Martin Wahlström
Kevin Sule
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R&D expenses were down from SEK-16.5m last year to SEK-9.5m this quarter, resulting in an operating loss of SEK-11.4m. This shows better cost control than our estimates for the quarter implied. Nevertheless, small quarterly variations in R&D are not at the core of the investment case. Management expects the cash position of cSEK75m at the end of Q2 to suffice until Q3 2025e, giving the company ample time to drive clinical progress and carry out further business development.
The company released an operational update in conjunction with the Q2 2024 report, where it provided the status of its ongoing clinical development. Everything seems to progress according to plan, with a positive development in the KANDOA study, where fewer patients might be necessary to meet the study objectives.
We make no changes to our estimates, and simply adjust the valuation range for quarterly FX fluctuations and the updated cash position. Our fair value range i SEK0.8 (0.8) to SEK7.3 (7.4), with a Base Case of SEK3.1 (3.3) per share.
| SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
| Revenues | 0.75 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 336.0 | 0.0 |
| Revenue Growth | -70.5% | 37.5% | -100% | nm. | -100% |
| EBITDA | -51.9 | -65.0 | -52.1 | 283.7 | -15.0 |
| EBIT | -51.9 | -65.0 | -52.1 | 283.7 | -15.0 |
| EBIT Margin | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. |
| Net Income | -52.5 | -64.9 | -52.1 | 283.7 | -15.0 |
| EV/Sales | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. |
| EV/EBIT | -2.5 | -2.0 | -2.5 | 0.5 | -8.6 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
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