CLS Q2: A quarter in line with our expectations
Research Update
2024-08-26
07:00
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Gustaf Meyer answered 5 questions.
Redeye provides an update following CLS’ Q2 report that fairly aligned with our expectations and did not include any significant surprises. Based on the report, we only make some minor estimate changes; however, our fair value range remains untouched.
Gustaf Meyer
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The sales for Q2 came in at SEK5.6m (SEK1.3m), representing a y/y increase of 349% and a q/q increase of 79%. The sales can be compared to our sales estimate of SEK4.8m. The sales during the quarter come from the neurosurgery segment and are related to the ClearPoint orders that CLS has received during the year. Furthermore, operating expenses amounted to SEK-17.4m (SEK-19.2m) compared to our estimate of SEK-16.4m. The operating expenses mainly consisted of personnel and other external expenses. In general, the OPEX line items aligned relatively well with our expectations. Lastly, EBIT during the quarter came in at SEK-12.9m (SEK-17.0m), slightly better than our estimate of SEK-14.3m.
The report fairly aligned with our expectations as both sales and expenses came within the margins. Furthermore, we are positive about the company’s strategic change (increased focus on neurosurgery) as it decreases the overall risk in our view and has high potential. We look forward to the second half of the year, when we expect sales to rise even further and a critical TO7B warrants program that will be crucial for the company’s financial future.
Except for the relatively minor estimate changes we have made, we have also updated our capital raising assumption (update to current share price level). Concludingly, the changes do not render any changes in our fair value range, including a base case of SEK22, a bull case of SEK46, and a bear case of SEK5.5. Furthermore, we argue that the financial risk (risk of another rights issue) lies as a wet blanket to the share. However, rising sales and orders during the year's second half could act as catalysts for the share. Additionally, a solid amount received from the TO7B warrants program is also highly important as it would decrease the risk of a further capital injection.
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 6.3 | 8.3 | 28.9 | 53.7 | 78.9 |
Revenue Growth | 179% | 32.0% | 249% | 86.0% | 47.0% |
EBITDA | -65.0 | -63.2 | -47.9 | -21.4 | -3.3 |
EBIT | -67.4 | -65.9 | -50.4 | -27.1 | -10.5 |
EBIT Margin | -1076% | -797% | -175% | -50.6% | -13.3% |
Source: Redeye research (forecasts)
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Investment thesis
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