The phase II study is now recruiting patients with three sites approved and more planned. We hope to see the first patient recruited very soon (end of Q3). Screening appears to take longer than expected, which is probably why more clinics may be added. The Q2 CEO message suggests this is because it is difficult to find patients with high enough triglyceride levels – the inclusion criteria have been modified to allow patients with moderately increased triglycerides. This increases the pool of patients, thus speeding up recruitment, but is not ideal for measuring efficacy since we expect Lipisense to have a greater effect on very high than on moderately high triglyceride levels. After full recruitment, results should likely be available in H2 2025 (assuming smooth recruitment), since patients will be followed for six months.

The most interesting event in Q2 was the launch of Marea Therapeutics, which received USD190m in private equity funding. Its candidate also targets ANGPTL4 but is an antibody (Lipisense is an antisense oligonucleotide). It is also conducting a phase II study. However, the focus will be on cardiometabolic disorders, while Lipigon focuses on dyslipidaemia. The projects are very similar and based on the same science. The large investments in Marea validate Lipisense and suggest the Lipigon share is misvalued. This is likely due to being listed on First North, which is not well known internationally, and because of limited funding.

Lipigon was not selected to receive the grant from the European Innovation Council, even though Lipisense was awarded “Seal of Excellence”. It received circa USD1m from Leaderna for the Chinese phase I approval. With cash to cover 3-4 quarters, the company will most likely need some bridge funding to reach the phase II readout, so we have added some dilution (SEK20m). We have added one year to the development timeline of Lipisense with an estimated launch in 2031 (2030). Our base case is SEK1.6 (SEK2.5).