As the Leqembi sales for Q2 had already been disclosed, the report contained no significant surprises in our view, although BioArctic confirmed what Eisai also previously communicated: that the launch in Japan has exceeded expectations and now also that the launch in China is going well. BioArctic recorded sales of SEK49.8m, of which SEK42.6m were royalty revenues for Leqembi. OPEX amounted to some SEK121m, and EBIT landed at SEK-76m, which was somewhat better than our expectation (SEK-88m).

Looking at the ongoing Leqembi launch, the expansion is getting traction, and it seems that the commercial structure in the US is in place. In Japan, the start has been very successful, according to Eisai, and now amounts to a third of the US sales, higher than we had expected. Leqembi is now approved in 8 markets, most recently in Great Britain. This summer, it was also announced that the CHMP, EMA's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use, recommended against the approval of Leqembi in the EU. This surprised us and most others, leading to a significant sell-off in the share. According to CHMP, the risk/benefit profile was not favorable, citing the risk of the common side effect ARIA, and especially for the risk group APOE-homozygote. Eisai has requested a re-examination. We have risk-adjusted our EU estimates as a result.

We make some mainly near-term adjustments but reiterate our base case of SEK275 per share for now, as we already adjusted for the EU-process this summer. Looking foward, we argue that the reports and indication from the launch will remain the key driver for the share price, although the EU process likely will impact the sentiment as well.