The readout from the study in triple-negative breast cancer, TRIFOUR, has been delayed to H1 2025, probably in Q2 (from H2 2024). This means Cantargia likely needs funding before instead of after this important catalyst, as the cash position also lasts until H1 2025 (likely Q1). The majority of patients have already been recruited, with full enrolment expected by Q1. The main result in the first readout is thus likely ORR. The start of the study in leukaemia is imminent, in Q4 this year. The study is funded by the US Department of Defence. A dose-dependent reduction in neuropathy was demonstrated in CANFOUR, which we discuss below. The phase IIb study in pancreatic cancer has been postponed until funding is sorted, which is anticipated before the TRIFOUR readout.

Cantargia reported a positive outcome of the data monitoring committee review in August. Eight dose groups have now received a single dose without any safety issues, with just the ninth remaining. Blood samples from individuals treated with CAN10 were stimulated with IL-36. This leads to an increase in IL-6, which is downstream, in normal blood samples. The increase in IL-6 was inhibited in a dose-dependent manner in CAN10-treated individuals. This constitutes proof-of-mechanism – CAN10 blocks IL-36 just as it was designed to. Cantargia will choose between hidradenitis suppurativa and multiple sclerosis in phase II.

We have decreased the assumed royalty rate to 15% (17%), as the basis for a near-term deal would be the results in triple-negative breast cancer (TRIFOUR), which has less economic potential than pancreatic cancer. This results in a new base case of SEK14 (SEK15). We have assumed some dilution (SEK175). In the conference call, CEO Göran Forsberg reiterated that he wants a responsible funding of the planned phase IIb study in pancreatic cancer, which we believe could mean a direct share issue to specialist investors or a collaboration, potentially combined with a rights issue.