Circio H1 2024: Collaborations now active
Research Update
2024-09-02
07:10
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Richard Ramanius answered 2 questions.
Redeye revises its update on Circio after the H1 report. The company is making progress with CircVec, but funding is problematic considering the low market capitalisation and need to obtain funding from convertible bonds.
Richard Ramanius
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Circio has entered five research collaborations with partners who have a gene therapy delivery or vector technology to test how CircVec works with their systems. This could improve CircVec's performance. Positive results could also attract larger pharmaceutical companies who want to see relevant in-vivo results with the final delivery technology such as an AAV virus (rather than just technical DNA) with disease-relevant payloads. The goal is to enter a first partnership in 2025, which would validate the platform and likely bring in some upfront income. It could either be a smaller deal with one of the five research partners (most likely), or a larger deal with Big Pharma (this likely takes more time and could follow later).
Circio is working on performing a preclinical proof-of-principle for CircVec with AAV as a vector, the most common in gene therapy. It has constructed an AAV loaded with CircVec and tested it through IV (goes to the liver) and intramuscular administration. The intramuscular experiment is on day 70, but so far there is no difference from AAV using mRNA (the dose may have been too high leading to over-saturation). Now Circio will test later versions of CircVec (2.2 and 3.0 when it is finished) and use lower doses with intramuscular-directed AAV to achieve greater expression compared to mRNA. More in-vivo AAV results are expected later this or perhaps early next year, which is something partners want to see. The company thinks it is half-way to demonstrating what is needed.
We have decreased our valuation of TG01 since the pancreatic cancer trial was cancelled. We assume more dilution from bond conversions due to a lower share price. This results in a base case to NOK3 (NOK5). This is a best estimate since we have no model for exactly predicting future dilution. The cash position after the rights issue is limited. The company has to continue drawing tranches from Atlas to fund operations from October. The funding runs until 30 June 2025.
Key financials
NOKm | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 0.12 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 143.7 |
Revenue Growth | -98.8% | -100% | nm. | 584% |
EBITDA | -98.7 | -48.1 | -27.1 | 80.5 |
EBIT | -100.5 | -48.1 | -27.1 | 80.5 |
EBIT Margin | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. |
Net Income | -110.7 | 19.1 | -27.1 | 80.5 |
EV/Sales | nm. | nm. | nm. | nm. |
EV/EBIT | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.8 | 0.3 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
Contents
Investment thesis
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