Saniona Q2: Continued progress, exciting autumn ahead
Research Update
2024-09-02
11:05
Redeye returns with an updated view of Saniona following the Q2 report and recent progress.
Fredrik Thor
As expected, the report contained no significant surprises. Revenues amounted to SEK8m and were also related this quarter to licensing/partnering agreements with Boehringer Ingelheim and AstronautX. OPEX landed at SEK-24m and was related to other external costs of SEK-12m (-13.8m) and personnel costs of SEK-8.8m (-SEK8.8m).
In the report, Saniona states that it has applied for approval to start a phase I MAD/biomarker study with SAN711 and expects to start patient recruitment in September, indicating that the timeline to present Q4 is still on track. The company also reports progress with SAN2355 and states that the preclinical work and regulatory filing for phase I should be ready in 9 months if funding allows. Furthermore, the company indicates progress in the ongoing approval process for Tesofensine in Mexico. Finally, the company reiterates its goal to land at least one partnership during the year.
We note that the share price has rallied significantly recently, likely due to anticipation around a Mexico approval and relief after guarantors have sold out their shares (at least, that is how we interpret the latest data from Holdings). For now, we reiterate our base case of SEK6 per share, but note that both key catalysts in H2 (Tesofensine approval, licensing agreement) could allow us to revisit our valuation. Furthermore, we believe that the company's current activities related to SAN711 also could constitute a catalyst if signs are promising.
Key Financials
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e |
Revenues | 15.3 | 16.8 | 62.4 | 56.0 |
EBITDA | -217.9 | -71.4 | -15.1 | -31.9 |
EBIT | -225.7 | -81.1 | -17.0 | -37.5 |
Disclosures and disclaimers