Sdiptech: Structural changes for long term growth
Research Update
2024-10-28
06:55
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Niklas Sävås answered 2 questions.
Redeye retains its positive view of Sdiptech following a Q3 report that was below our estimates. The company continues to perform positive organic growth while the profit margin is still on a solid level. We nudge down our base case fair value per share driven by lowering our estimates ahead and believe stable results ahead will drive the stock price upwards.
Niklas Sävås
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Sales increased by 7% year over year, and organic sales growth was 1% excluding currency effects. This was below our estimates. The adjusted EBITA margin was solid and came in at c18.7% with organic EBITA growth of c-8%, driven by strong comparables. Net profit was negatively impacted by higher financing costs and a higher tax rate and earnings per share decreased with c32%. Cash conversion of c67% was decent and we believe in strong cash flows in Q4. The company meets tough comparables in Q4 and we expect continued soft organic growth and slight margin pressure.
The big news in the quarter was some structural changes. Firstly, Sdiptech is looking to divest its underperforming business unit Metus. Back in 2021, Sdiptech sold its Swedish elevator service business and this step is another measure taken to streamline the business to solely focused on high-margin product businesses. Secondly, Sdiptech also announced that it is splitting the two business areas to four in the beginning of 2025. Thirdly, two senior managers that have been important to build the company to what it is today are leaving in early 2025. We believe Sdiptech are on solid footing today and don't expect any major impact from the management changes.
We decrease our Fair Value Range from SEK220 to SEK600 to SEK200 to SEK560 with a Base Case per share of SEK360 driven by lowering our estimates ahead. The market’s reaction to the Q3 report was clearly negative, and we believe this is partly driven by the two senior managers leaving which creates some uncertainty. We believe stable results ahead will drive the stock upwards to our base case.
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 3,585.1 | 4,887.9 | 5,446.1 | 5,860.5 | 6,625.5 |
Revenue Growth | 30.7% | 36.3% | 11.4% | 7.6% | 13.1% |
EBITDA | 858.3 | 1,146.1 | 1,253.0 | 1,321.5 | 1,484.1 |
EBIT | 641.2 | 835.5 | 901.3 | 977.0 | 1,106.5 |
EBIT Margin | 18.3% | 17.3% | 16.9% | 16.7% | 16.7% |
Net Income | 428.1 | 445.6 | 449.3 | 520.5 | 595.7 |
EV/Sales | 3.3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
EV/EBIT | 18.0 | 16.2 | 15.2 | 14.2 | 12.9 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
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