Xbrane reported Q3 revenues of SEK69.5m, reflecting an 18% y/y increase and a 34% q/q rise, primarily driven by a USD5m milestone payment from Biogen tied to the XB003 project (previously BIIB801). The profit split was SEK16m, slightly down from SEK21m in Q2, despite a 23% growth in end-customer volumes. This decrease in profit split was attributed to higher SG&A costs on STADA's end and currency headwinds. Operating expenses totalled SEK85m, and at the end of the quarter Xbrane had a cash position of SEK31m, underscoring the urgent need for additional funding.

While Ximluci sales are now showing steady growth, with the product capturing "a market share well above 1%," albeit from a relatively low base, the primary near-term focus remains on the ongoing outlicensing processes for Xdivane and XB003. Xdivane has progressed to the deal-negotiation stage with interested parties, with the company extending the deadline to finalize a deal until November. Additionally, we provide an overview of recent partnering deals in the biosimilar space to contextualize Xbrane's situation.

We have made some adjustments, primarily to FY 2024e sales and the near-term cost base following the Q3 results. However, since the share price trajectory and valuation will largely be influenced by the ongoing partnering processes, we have refrained from making significant valuation adjustments. It is essential to highlight that the company is approaching a binary event, creating a high-risk, potentially high-reward scenario for investors. This outcome is likely to be the decisive factor for the company’s share price and valuation trajectory.