Nanologica Q3 2024: Poised for harvest season?
Research Update
2024-11-12
07:55
Redeye provides an updated view on Nanologica following the company’s Q3 report. With stabilized production and Nanologica’s products now in active use in a customer’s GLP-1 production, the company could be on the verge of entering a harvest period in 2025. We provide an updated fair value range and estimates, following the company's rights issue.
Filip Einarsson
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Sales came in at SEK0.6m. OPEX, including D&A, totaled SEK20.6m, EBIT was SEK-22.2m. The deviation from our estimates is primarily on account of lower cost for raw materials and consumables, to a SEK-5m impairment and the fact that the SEK4m in Q3 orders were not recognized as sales in the income statement. The end-of-quarter cash position was SEK4.1m; however, including net proceeds from the rights issue, the current cash position is estimated at approximately SEK70-75m.
The key aspects of Nanologica’s case remain focused on improvements and stability in production, and the flow of recurring orders from existing customers, alongside new customer evaluations converting into production orders. Since June, a GLP-1 customer in China has placed three consecutive orders for NLAB Saga, totaling approximately SEK8m, with further orders expected in the upcoming quarters. With near-term meetings scheduled with potential large volume customers for both NLAB Siv and NLAB Saga, the company seems well-positioned to drive a sales in the coming quarters 2025.
We have revised our estimates due to longer-than-anticipated lead times between order announcements and actual sales recognition, effectively delaying the timing of modeled sales. Additionally, the conversion of customer evaluations to production orders has taken longer than initially projected. As a result, we have slightly trimmed our near-term estimates and adjusted our valuation model to account for the newly issued shares and outstanding warrants (which is the primary reason of the adjusted fair value range). Consequently, our updated base case stands at SEK4, down from SEK11.
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Net Sales | 1.6 | 1.4 | 19.8 | 89.6 | 150.1 |
Sales Growth | -88.0% | -7.1% | 1273% | 352% | 67.5% |
EBITDA | -39.0 | -60.4 | -40.9 | 7.6 | 32.1 |
EBIT | -50.9 | -79.7 | -54.8 | -3.2 | 18.5 |
EBIT Margin | -3270% | -5523% | -277% | -3.5% | 12.3% |
Net Income | -55.2 | -84.9 | -59.1 | -3.2 | 18.5 |
EV/Sales | 188 | 253 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
EV/EBIT | -5.8 | -4.6 | -2.4 | -51.5 | 9.2 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
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