Alzecure Q3 2024: Business development on the agenda

Research Update

2024-11-14

08:45

Redeye returns with an update following Alzecure's Q3 report. In relation to this update, we make some adjustments to our deal and pipeline assumptions.

FL

Fredrik Thor

Filip Lindkvist

No surprises in report

Alzecure’s Q3 contained few surprises, as expected, with operating expenses amounting to SEK-7.8m and a cash position at SEK39m. The company continues to have a stable OPEX and we don't expect costs to increase in the near term. During the quarter, the company also carried out a directed share issue" in follow-up to a previously given subscription commitment".

New data and presence at conferences

The company continues to be active at conferences and in presenting new (mainly pre-clinical) data. During Q3, the company published a scientific article related to ACD856. The company has also made some progress with the second part of its Painless platform, TrkA-NAM, and presented new pre-clinical results for lead candidate ACD137 at the pain conference IASP.

Adjusted deal- and pipeline assumptions lead to lower valuation

We have reviewed our valuation and deal prospects for Alzecure, supported by biotech deals in the Nordics in recent years, and have made some modifications mainly to our upfront assumptions on ACD440 and ACD856. We also raise our financing assumption and WACC somewhat. In total, we land at a new base case of SEK6 per share, with a bear case SEK 0.5 per share and bull case of SEK15 per share.

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Revenues0.00.00.043.60.0
Revenue Growthnm.nm.nm.nm.-100%
EBITDA-56.4-44.3-36.5-16.7-71.4
EBIT-56.4-44.3-36.5-16.7-71.4
EBIT Marginnm.nm.nm.nm.nm.
Net Income-56.2-43.2-35.5-16.7-71.4

Disclosures and disclaimers

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