Truecaller: Solid report overshadowed by news flow

Research Update

2024-11-08

07:25

Redeye states that the Q3 report was solid, with ad revenues returning to y/y growth, while recurring revenues continue to grow at a high and steady pace. However, despite the solid report, it is somewhat overshadowed by recent news of the CEO change and the visit by Indian tax authorities to Truecaller's offices in India. Redeye makes minor estimate revisions following the report.

Anton Hoof

Jessica Grunewald

Q3 – Solid report in line with expectations

Truecaller reported a solid quarter, bouncing back to y/y growth, accelerating user growth while continuing to show strong cash conversion. Sales were 1% better than our expectations, with the largest deviation coming from Truecaller for Business, which saw a 48% y/y growth, 6% above our forecast. However, the solid report was somewhat overshadowed by the news of the CEO change and the visit by Indian tax authorities to Truecaller's India offices. We believe the former should be seen as a non-dramatic event, while we understand that the latter creates uncertainty in the market.

Strong business momentum – here to stay

With CPM levels likely having bottomed out and easier comps ahead, ad revenues should grow even without a rebound in the underlying ad market. Combined with continued solid growth in recurring revenues and the upcoming product launch on iOS, we expect the strong business momentum to continue. However, until more information is disclosed regarding the Indian tax authorities' visit, there is a risk that the current uncertainty will persist, potentially hampering the share price.

Estimates and valuation

On the back of the report, we make relatively small estimate revisions, lowering ad revenues by 4% for 2025e–2026e, while increasing subscriptions and Truecaller for Business by 2% and 3%, respectively, for 2025e–2026e. Truecaller will continue to face easier comparables in the upcoming quarters, and we anticipate continued strong momentum in recurring revenues, supporting both growth and stability. We maintain our valuation with a base case of SEK55 and a fair value range of SEK28–90.

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Net Sales1,772.91,728.91,830.72,341.72,904.3
Sales Growth57.0%-2.5%5.9%27.9%24.0%
EBITDA717.1702.9664.0938.01,204.3
EBIT688.5657.7612.1896.11,160.9
EBIT Margin38.8%38.0%33.4%38.3%40.0%
Net Income535.2536.4501.6692.4893.7
EV/Sales7.88.26.74.93.6
EV/EBIT20.021.619.912.89.1

Review of Q3 2024

As expected, the Q3 report showed solid growth, with sales at SEK457m, resulting in y/y of 15% and coming in 1% higher than our estimate of SEK453m. The largest deviation stems from Truecaller for business, which performed 6% better than expected, while Ads and Subscription revenues were in line. Regarding profitability, adj. EBITDA came in at SEK167m, corresponding to a margin of 37% and 2% better than our expectation of SEK164m. Overall, we find the Q3 figures solid, with no real surprises in the report.

Disclosures and disclaimers

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