Carasent: On Track Towards the Financial Targets
Research Update
2024-10-28
06:45
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Fredrik Nilsson answered 5 questions.
Redeye retains its positive view of Carasent following the Q3 report. We believe the strong CARR and further growth prospects – boosted by the new surgical module, for example – and a limited need for increased OPEX set Carasent for solid organic growth and expanding margins over the next few years.
Fredrik Nilsson
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The organic ARR growth was somewhat stronger than expected and amounted to 17% y/y, and organic growth in contracted ARR (CARR) was even stronger at 23% y/y. A robust net upsell of 14% - primarily driven by Capio and Aleris adding Webdoc to additional clinics – was the main driver behind the solid growth figure. Adjusted EBITDA-CAPEX was NOK3.9m, corresponding to an EBITDA-CAPEX margin of 6%, slightly better than expected.
Although Carasent has some development left to do, the company has started to provide demos for potential customers. The interest among potential customers has been strong so far, and Carasent expects to sign several contracts during the autumn of 2024 and spring of 2025, some of which can go live in the first months of next year.
We leave our Base Case unchanged at NOK26.5 (26.5) following minor estimate revisions. While churn related to VGR might hurt in 2026 depending on the outcome of the legal process, we believe the strong CARR and further growth prospects – boosted by the new surgical module, for example – along with a limited need for increased OPEX set Carasent for solid organic growth and expanding margins over the next few years.
NOKm | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e | 2027e |
Revenues | 244.0 | 273.2 | 322.8 | 368.5 | 417.5 |
Revenue Growth | 25.0% | 12.0% | 18.2% | 14.2% | 13.3% |
EBIT | -29.1 | -29.2 | 24.3 | 49.6 | 71.1 |
EBIT Margin | -11.9% | -10.7% | 7.5% | 13.5% | 17.0% |
EV/Revenue | 1.7 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
EV/EBIT | -14.6 | -36.0 | 42.4 | 20.1 | 13.4 |
ARR | 239 | 271 | 322 | 370 | 419 |
ARR Growth | 18.3% | 13.4% | 18.8% | 14.8% | 13.3% |
EBITDA - CAPEX | -47.5 | -6.3 | 37.4 | 53.0 | 69.5 |
EBITDA - CAPEX Margin | -19.5% | -2.3% | 11.6% | 14.4% | 16.6% |
EV/ARR | 1.8 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
EV/EBITDA - CAPEX | neg | neg | 27.5 | 18.8 | 13.7 |
Net Debt | -373.9 | -365.8 | -388.4 | -420.9 | -465.9 |
NWC/R12mSales | -11.1% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% | -10.0% |
Disclosures and disclaimers
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