Carasent: On Track Towards the Financial Targets

Research Update

2024-10-28

06:45

Analyst Q&A

Closed

Fredrik Nilsson answered 5 questions.

Redeye retains its positive view of Carasent following the Q3 report. We believe the strong CARR and further growth prospects – boosted by the new surgical module, for example – and a limited need for increased OPEX set Carasent for solid organic growth and expanding margins over the next few years.

Fredrik Nilsson

ARR Growth and Margin Expansion Taking Off

The organic ARR growth was somewhat stronger than expected and amounted to 17% y/y, and organic growth in contracted ARR (CARR) was even stronger at 23% y/y. A robust net upsell of 14% - primarily driven by Capio and Aleris adding Webdoc to additional clinics – was the main driver behind the solid growth figure. Adjusted EBITDA-CAPEX was NOK3.9m, corresponding to an EBITDA-CAPEX margin of 6%, slightly better than expected.

Surgical Module in Demo-Phase

Although Carasent has some development left to do, the company has started to provide demos for potential customers. The interest among potential customers has been strong so far, and Carasent expects to sign several contracts during the autumn of 2024 and spring of 2025, some of which can go live in the first months of next year.

Base Case Unchanged at NOK26.5 (26.5)

We leave our Base Case unchanged at NOK26.5 (26.5) following minor estimate revisions. While churn related to VGR might hurt in 2026 depending on the outcome of the legal process, we believe the strong CARR and further growth prospects – boosted by the new surgical module, for example – along with a limited need for increased OPEX set Carasent for solid organic growth and expanding margins over the next few years.

Key financials

NOKm20232024e2025e2026e2027e
Revenues244.0273.2322.8368.5417.5
Revenue Growth25.0%12.0%18.2%14.2%13.3%
EBIT-29.1-29.224.349.671.1
EBIT Margin-11.9%-10.7%7.5%13.5%17.0%
EV/Revenue1.73.93.22.72.3
EV/EBIT-14.6-36.042.420.113.4
ARR239271322370419
ARR Growth18.3%13.4%18.8%14.8%13.3%
EBITDA - CAPEX-47.5-6.337.453.069.5
EBITDA - CAPEX Margin-19.5%-2.3%11.6%14.4%16.6%
EV/ARR1.83.93.22.72.3
EV/EBITDA - CAPEXnegneg27.518.813.7
Net Debt-373.9-365.8-388.4-420.9-465.9
NWC/R12mSales-11.1%-10.0%-10.0%-10.0%-10.0%

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