Enea: Past its nadir and building momentum

Research Update

2024-10-28

07:00

Analyst Q&A

Closed

Rasmus Jacobsson answered 2 questions.

Enea’s report aligned with Redeye’s estimates (RRe) on a constant currency basis. Post-quarter end, Enea announced a large extension on the Stratum product with an incremental value of USD5m-9m. Enea is valued at an EV/S 2025e of 2.2x and an EV/EBITDAC on 2025e of 9.4x, with good margins and mid-single-digit-to-low double-digit growth. Redeye raised its estimate and fair value range.

Rasmus Jacobsson

16% growth in Security in local currencies

Revenue came in at SEK216, missing Redeye estimates (RRe) by 4%. However, the quarter was heavily weighted by FX headwinds. Thus, on a like-for-like basis, sales were only 1% below our estimate. Security grew 16% in constant currencies and represented 45% of sales. Network declined 3% and came in 3% below expectations on a currency-adjusted basis. EBITDA came in at SEK72m, which was only 1% below estimates, while EBITDAC came in at 5% below estimates and landed at SEK48m. However, the EBITDAC margin was in line.

Continued strong momentum

Enea continues to build momentum, signing a three-year agreement with a Tier-1 network operator in North America for the Stratum offering for 2025-2027. The committed contract value is USD17.7m (~SEK190m) with potential extensions up to USD21.3m (~SEK230m). Existing orders are incorporated in the new agreement. Thus, the incremental value ranges between USD5m-9m.

Increased fair value range ~20% to Base Case

Redeye increased its estimates and its fair value range from SEK60-170 with a Base Case of SEK110 to SEK65-180 with a Base Case of SEK120. Enea is valued at an EV/S 2025e of 2.2x and an EV/EBITDAC on 2025e of 9.4x, with good margins and mid-single-digit-to-low double-digit growth. We calculate that the buyback program has been close to fully utilized, which may reduce the share's momentum. Enea will host a capital markets day on 4 December, where we expect updated targets that may catalyze the share.

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Revenues996.6945.5921.7993.61,100.1
Revenue Growth0.3%-5.1%-2.5%7.8%10.7%
EBITDA292.4229.1304.8329.2392.5
EBIT117.9-488.4134.6159.2222.5
EBIT Margin12.3%-52.9%14.8%16.2%20.4%
Net Income203.1-578.4103.8105.4155.6
EV/Sales2.31.52.01.71.3
EV/EBIT18.6-2.913.410.36.4
P/E17.4-2.119.419.112.9

Disclosures and disclaimers

Premium Plan required to unlock

Unlock companies to access

more high quality research.