Enea: Past its nadir and building momentum
Research Update
2024-10-28
07:00
Analyst Q&A
Closed
Rasmus Jacobsson answered 2 questions.
Enea’s report aligned with Redeye’s estimates (RRe) on a constant currency basis. Post-quarter end, Enea announced a large extension on the Stratum product with an incremental value of USD5m-9m. Enea is valued at an EV/S 2025e of 2.2x and an EV/EBITDAC on 2025e of 9.4x, with good margins and mid-single-digit-to-low double-digit growth. Redeye raised its estimate and fair value range.
Rasmus Jacobsson
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Revenue came in at SEK216, missing Redeye estimates (RRe) by 4%. However, the quarter was heavily weighted by FX headwinds. Thus, on a like-for-like basis, sales were only 1% below our estimate. Security grew 16% in constant currencies and represented 45% of sales. Network declined 3% and came in 3% below expectations on a currency-adjusted basis. EBITDA came in at SEK72m, which was only 1% below estimates, while EBITDAC came in at 5% below estimates and landed at SEK48m. However, the EBITDAC margin was in line.
Enea continues to build momentum, signing a three-year agreement with a Tier-1 network operator in North America for the Stratum offering for 2025-2027. The committed contract value is USD17.7m (~SEK190m) with potential extensions up to USD21.3m (~SEK230m). Existing orders are incorporated in the new agreement. Thus, the incremental value ranges between USD5m-9m.
Redeye increased its estimates and its fair value range from SEK60-170 with a Base Case of SEK110 to SEK65-180 with a Base Case of SEK120. Enea is valued at an EV/S 2025e of 2.2x and an EV/EBITDAC on 2025e of 9.4x, with good margins and mid-single-digit-to-low double-digit growth. We calculate that the buyback program has been close to fully utilized, which may reduce the share's momentum. Enea will host a capital markets day on 4 December, where we expect updated targets that may catalyze the share.
SEKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 996.6 | 945.5 | 921.7 | 993.6 | 1,100.1 |
Revenue Growth | 0.3% | -5.1% | -2.5% | 7.8% | 10.7% |
EBITDA | 292.4 | 229.1 | 304.8 | 329.2 | 392.5 |
EBIT | 117.9 | -488.4 | 134.6 | 159.2 | 222.5 |
EBIT Margin | 12.3% | -52.9% | 14.8% | 16.2% | 20.4% |
Net Income | 203.1 | -578.4 | 103.8 | 105.4 | 155.6 |
EV/Sales | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
EV/EBIT | 18.6 | -2.9 | 13.4 | 10.3 | 6.4 |
P/E | 17.4 | -2.1 | 19.4 | 19.1 | 12.9 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
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