The report fell short of our net sales forecast, while EBITDA came in better than expected, partially due to lower R&D than anticipated. While units grew ~50% q/q, product revenues only increased 0.4%. The low average selling price is explained by lower module sales (3-4x higher ASP) and most deliveries to Alps Alpine which naturally have the best pricing. The quarter saw ten new customer launches, with all segments except Automotive represented. Inventories continue to decrease, albeit slowly, due to raw materials being translated into finished goods intra-quarter. Acconeer expects the A2 to be finalised in 2025. This will build inventory as new wafers must be purchased six months ahead. We expect the A2 to launch with low volumes in H2 2025 and successively increase in 2026.

Acconeer presented a new go-to-market strategy, targeting specific major customers in growing sectors where Acconeer holds a technological advantage. Four key markets are emphasised: Tank level measurement, Presence detection, cargo monitoring, and Automotive. We believe that focused sales efforts on high volume prospects is a good strategy to accelerate product development at customers and get the products to market.

Following a reduction in projected sales growth, we reduce our fair value range from SEK5-24 with a Base Case of SEK13 to SEK2-13 with Base Case of SEK8. We expect Acconeer to just meet its 2027 sales goal of >SEK300m. Although we expect Acconeer to have a cash buffer of SEK1m with prepayments or debt as options if minor delays occur, we recognise a financing risk if the timeline is significantly delayed. Despite our reduced fair value range, our peer valuation suggests a fair value closer to our Bull Case.