Heliospectra reported net sales of SEK14.3m, a c73% increase y/y and only just below our expectations of SEK14.9m. Order intake was SEK3.7m, 26% below our forecast of SEK5.0m. The total order intake in 2024 stands at cSEK39m, cSEK19m above the previous year’s total. The gross margin of 30% is 13pp below our forecast of 43%. The lower margin is linked to the pilot sales within the greenhouse sector. These pilot projects, however, enhance Heliospectra’s negotiating position with component suppliers and are crucial reference cases for larger tenders. Due to a weaker gross margin than forecasted, EBIT was lower than expected at -SEK4.7 vs our -SEK2m estimate.

Heliospectra’s deliveries for the 2024 greenhouse season have concluded, while demand from less seasonally affected Ag-tech sectors remains strong. Consequently, we do not anticipate any sales from the greenhouse sector in Q4 2024. Heliospectra’s primary focus is ramping up commercialisation efforts to secure larger projects (exceeding SEK50m) for the 2025 greenhouse season. With its latest solutions, Heliospectra is well-equipped to be a competitive contender in these tenders. Additionally, two new senior, customer-focused hires in the Dutch office further strengthen Heliospectra’s position to win more significant projects in 2025 and beyond.

Following the Q3 2024 report, we have adjusted our estimates, notably reducing our 2024e sales forecast by 29%. We still believe that Helicospectra will secure at least one larger project for the 2025 season and that the AGtech segment will continue to provide a stable revenue stream. Our new fair value range is SEK0.3-SEK2.8 per share with a Base case of SEK1.2. Heliospectra is currently trading at an EV/Sales multiple of 1.1x based on 2024e and EV/EBIT 2.4x on 2026e.