IRLAB Q3 2024: Several catalysts ahead

Research Update

2024-11-01

08:52

Redeye returns following IRLAB's Q3 report and recent news in the company. We largely reiterate our stance and conclude that the company has several important catalysts ahead - including a Pirepemat phase IIb readout.

Fredrik Thor

Report as expected

As expected, the financial report contained few significant surprises. Total revenue amounted to some SEK16.6m, relating to the company's collaborations with MSRD/Otsuka and financing from the Michael J. Fox Foundation. OPEX amounted to -46m, but also includes costs related to IRL757 (covered by the income reported above). The company's own OPEX is around SEK-30m, including external costs related to the pirepemat trial (which is soon finalized). During the quarter, IRLAB received a pre-payment of SEK34m for the costs for IRL757, which is earmarked for the program and, as we understand, will be paid in installments during the coming quarters and also recognized as net revenue.

Full activity

During the quarter, IRLAB announced the enrollment of the final patient in its ongoing Phase IIb study of Pirepemat, targeting falls related to Parkinson's disease. The company has also reported that baseline data indicated patients are falling 2-3 times more than expected and that blinded data from the study indicate that patients that have participated in in the study fall less. We expect top-line data in Q1 2025. Recently, it was announced that IRLAB successfully completed the first part (single ascending dose) of its phase I study with IRL757, targeting apathy. The IRL757 program is funded by Michael J Fox Foundation and MSRD/Otsuka until proof-of-concept. The trial is expected to be finalized in 2024, and the top line is expected in Q1 2025. Finally, the company continues to gather insights around Mesdopetam, including with European regulatory bodies and health providers - indicating alignment with IRLAB and FDA on study design.

Reiterated Valuation

We reiterate our base case of SEK40 and argue that the company has significant catalysts ahead - including the phase IIb Pirepemat readout in Q1 and a financing solution (hopefully a licensing agreement). Furthermore, further progress with IRL757 could trigger an additional milestone payment.

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e
Revenues61.35.7103.0
EBITDA-108.3-176.5-88.3
EBIT-113.1-180.8-88.3

Disclosures and disclaimers

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