Xspray Pharma Q3 2024: Raising cash and anticipates H1 2025 launch of Dasynoc

Research Update

2024-11-07

08:05

Redeye updates its valuation model following Xspray's announcement of SEK235m in financing and the company's Q3 report, which reaffirmed the anticipated timeline for Dasynoc and expected Q2 2025 NDA submission for XS003.

Filip Einarsson

Q3 2024 financials

Xspray reported SEK-83.6m in OPEX, leading to an EBIT loss of SEK-82.7m for the quarter, a larger loss than in previous quarters. This increase was primarily due to a SEK-29m inventory disposal following the CRL, which advised Xspray to adjust tablet strengths. The cash position at the end of Q3 was SEK74.8m. Additionally, the company noted that a portion of previous investments in Malta production capacity will be written off next quarter.

Rasing SEK235m in cash and expected Q4 resubmission

Xspray announced a fully guaranteed SEK135m rights issue and a SEK100m loan, securing the financial flexibility needed to advance its pipeline while preparing for the anticipated Dasynoc launch in Q1 or Q2 2025. The company reiterated that if its Dasynoc resubmission is classified as Class 1, the review period will be two months, potentially enabling a Q1 launch; if designated Class 2, the six-month review would entail a late Q2 launch, pending approval at the new PDUFA date.

New base case, SEK88

The share declined by 14% yesterday following the announced rights issue but is still trading at a clear premium to the subscription price in the issue. This likely reflects the limited dilution and also a growing market confidence in a potential approval at the next PDUFA date. Following the report and yesterday’s announced funding, we have made minor adjustments to our near-term estimates, resulting in a modest downward revision of our fair value range. Our updated base case stands at SEK88 (94).

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Revenues2.131.84.8557.81,386.3
Revenue Growth221%1407%-85.0%11606%149%
EBITDA-123.6-172.5-260.3-97.7591.6
EBIT-133.1-181.7-270.5-108.9579.3
EBIT Margin-6316%-572%-5676%-19.5%41.8%
EV/Salesnm.nm.nm.3.51.5
EV/EBIT-8.8-5.6-6.4-17.82.7

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