Redeye is encouraged by the new management in Sivers, guiding for a long-term ambition of reaching a “high-single-digit market share” of its USD2bn SAM in 2028. Sivers recorded the second-highest quarterly revenue in the company’s history, with product sales growing +58% YTD, though the report overall came in below our estimates. With cash on hand of SEK14m at the end of Q3, Redeye’s main question mark surrounds the short-term financing, which, for our Base Case to hold, needs to be solved by receiving the CHIPs Act Payment of cSEK40m before year-end. Redeye’s previous expectations of a sales ramp-up in the near term have also been pushed forward, resulting in lowered estimates and fair value range.

In the conference call following the report, Sivers’ CEO Vickram Vathulya provided a strategic update, highlighting the completion of core technology development and a shift to the “scale-up and scale-out” phase. Sivers targets a USD2bn SAM by 2028, aiming for a high single-digit market share. Key growth areas include Satellite communications and AI Datacenters with rising demand for photonics expected by H2 2026.

On the back of the Q3 report, we adjusted our estimated ramp-up of revenue for both Wireless and Photonics to slightly more than a year later than we previously had anticipated. Meanwhile, we make minor upward adjustments for OPEX while adjusting our 2027 EBITDA estimate by -34%. We also take into account an additional capital raise of SEK125m in Q2 2025. We believe an imminent payment of the CHIPs Act funding could extend Siver’s short-term run rate until Q2 2025 when Sivers’ convertible debt of SEK53.5m is due for payment, but that an additional funding of SEK125m would allow Sivers to reach break even. As a result, we adjust our fair value range from SEK3-22 to SEK0.7-9.4, with Base Case adjusted from SEK14 to SEK5.4. Our Base Case relies upon the company receiving SEK40m of the total cSEK120m in CHIPs Act funding before year-end.