Kontigo Care reported a 6% year-on-year growth rate and a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase, resulting in net sales of SEK7.6m, 3% above our forecast. By the end of the quarter, MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue) was SEK2.5m, a c2% decrease q/q and on par with our estimate. The reported EBIT (incl. capitalisation) was SEK0.7m, whereas the EBIT with the least capitalisation was SEK-0.7m. The positive deviation from our EBIT less capitalisation estimate of -SEK 2.3m stems from slightly higher net sales, lower operating expenses and capitalisation. EBITDAC (EBITDA- CAPEX) was SEK0.3m. We favour EBITDAC as our profitability metric for SaaS companies as it treats all R&D expenses as upfront costs.

Kontigo Care’s outlook remains positive yet complex, marked by promising initiatives and ongoing challenges. Previct Safety is advancing into private-sector drug testing, though we do not expect any significant sales impact until H2 2025. In the municipality market, despite record-high Q3 revenue, tight budgets may restrict license growth in the short term. With Previct Safety, strategic cost control and two new international partnerships, Kontigo is well-positioned for gradual expansion, but our view is that it is still some time before these gains fully materialise in the P&L. Overall, we view the case as intact.

We have slightly revised our forecasts, decreasing net sales by 1%, from SEK31m to SEK30m for 2024e. Additionally, we have adjusted our estimate to reflect our expectation of Previct Safety’s impact in H2 2025. Our Base Case valuation remains steady at SEK5.8 per share, with a fair value range of SEK1.1 to SEK12.3 per share.