BioInvent Q3 2024: New Positive BI-1206 SC Data
Research Update
2024-11-01
10:30
Analyst Q&A
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Richard Ramanius answered 6 questions.
Redeye comments on BioInvent's Q3 report, which presented new data for the subcutaneous version of BI-1206 in combination with rituximab in lymphoma.
Richard Ramanius
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Data from nine patients in the phase I SC part was presented in the Q3 report. Two complete responses, three partial responses and three stable diseases have been observed. This translates to a disease control rate of (89%), a response rate of 56% and a complete response rate of 22%. Considering the early stage of treatment, this appears a bit better than the results with the intravenous version (DCR 71%, ORR 35%, CR 29% as of May 2024). Infusion-related events are avoided.
The study of the triple combination of BI-1206+rituximab+acalabrutinib in lymphoma has started recruitment and BioInvent plans to present the first data late in 2024. This study is progressing quickly. BI-1206 would be a good match with acalabrutinib, so we think there is potential for a deal with AstraZeneca upon strong results from the next readout in mid-2025. The triplet might compete with CAR-T and bispecifics, with less toxicity. BioInvent plans to present new data with BI-1808 as monotherapy by year-end. We are particularly intrigued by the CTCL indication, which is caused by mutated Tregs with high expression of TNFR2, which causes uncontrolled cell division. BI-1808, thus, in theory, hits at the root cause of the disease. Based on the first four evaluable patients, the ORR was 75%, which is favourable versus the 35% of standard treatments.
We have made several changes to our valuation (see the section Valuation below), including significantly increasing the value of the five out-licensed programmes and adding a year to the BI-1206 and BI-1607 programmes. The resulting base case remains SEK90. The cash position is almost SEK1bn, which will fund the company into 2026 (through Q1, according to guidance). A deal with BI-1808 upon strong CTCL data could add to the cash position in 2025. 2025 will be a year with several important readouts (discussed below) that could result in a deal or increased share price that would enable an equity issue (probably directed) with limited dilution.
SEKm | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 71.5 | 30.0 | 588.6 | 577.7 |
Revenue Growth | -78.1% | -58.0% | 1862% | -1.8% |
EBITDA | -369.9 | -474.5 | -0.88 | 17.8 |
EBIT | -369.9 | -474.5 | -0.88 | 17.8 |
EBIT Margin | -518% | -1582% | -0.1% | 3.1% |
Net Income | -330.3 | -431.9 | -0.88 | 21.8 |
EV/EBIT | -1.8 | -2.3 | -1,293 | 62.2 |
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