Catella: Light at the end of the tunnel

Research Update

2024-11-08

07:00

Analyst Q&A

Closed

Martin Wahlström answered 4 questions.

Redeye provides a research update following Catella's Q3 2024 report. The report was broadly in line with estimates, and management's optimism about an improving sentiment after a tough couple of years is considered the key highlight. The stock continues to be cheap on normalised earnings, especially when adjusting for project related debt and assets. Redeye mostly maintains its estimates, with a minimal reduction of our Bull Case.

Martin Wahlström

Rasmus Jacobsson

Financial commentary - Broadly in line

Investment Management showed top-line figures precisely in line with our estimates, with revenue at SEK259m. Adjusted for the one-off costs related to IM, EBIT was also very close, at SEK36m compared to our forecasted SEK37m. AUM declined by SEK1.2bn in the quarter as a result of FX and revaluations. Inflows remain larger than outflows. Corporate Finance came in better than expected and Principal Investments had a quiet quarter, with a divestment of Polaxis scheduled in Q4. We continue to view Kaktus as the primary catalyst, with a divestment forecasted to generate a significant profit in Q1 2025e.

Market outlook - More optimistic than anticipated

Management's market outlook for the near-term seems to have improved quite a bit from the last few quarters, and there is hope of buyers' and sellers' expectations merging as interest rate reductions are slowly being priced in. During the conference call, it was stated that investor interest is both intensified and more well-financed compared to only six months ago.

Valuation mostly unchanged - Base Case at SEK56

We leave most of our IM and Corporate Finance estimates untouched following the report, although we make som minor changes. For Principal Investments, we increase our expected profit fom the Kaktus divestment to SEK300m before tax, and postpone the transaction to Q1 2025. Our fair value range is SEK25(25)-SEK69(70), with Base Case of SEK56(56) per share. The stock is now trading at low single-digit EV/EBIT multiples when looking at the enterprise value adjusted for project-related debt and assets.

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Total Revenue2,611.02,319.01,750.82,046.32,259.4
Revenue Growth42.4%-11.2%-24.5%16.9%10.4%
EBITDA670.0195.0187.9761.7524.9
EBIT596.0122.0115.9689.7452.9
EBIT Margin28.8%7.0%6.6%36.9%21.8%
Net Income397.6-25.0-22.4407.1240.9
EV/Sales1.72.42.41.00.9
EV/EBIT5.934.136.52.64.0

Disclosures and disclaimers

Premium Plan required to unlock

Unlock companies to access

more high quality research.