Oncopeptides Q3 2024: Sluggish Growth

Research Update

2024-11-08

10:20

Analyst Q&A

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Richard Ramanius answered 2 questions.

Redeye comments on Oncopeptides' Q3 report 2024. Revenues in Q3 increased slightly compared to Q2, but product sales declined. Nevertheless, sales should improve in the next quarters as the Spanish launch gains pace.

Richard Ramanius

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Sluggish growth

Product sales in Q3 were SEK7.4m versus SEK8.2m in Q2. A milestone payment from South Korean SCBIO of SEK1.1m mean total revenues amounted to SEK8.5m in Q3. According to the conference call, the lower sales are mainly due to no new orders coming from Greece in the quarter. German sales were relatively stable and Spain has begun to contribute. A faster uptake is needed in Germany if Oncopeptides is to reach its sales target.

Sales strategy prioritises DE-ES-IT

Oncopeptides will focus more on Germany, Spain and Italy in the short to medium term. These are very different markets. For example, Oncopeptides estimates the number of MM prescribers in Germany to 2000 with 2500 potential patients. The corresponding numbers for Spain are 300 prescribers with 1500 patients and 240 prescribers with 1800 patients in Italy. This means Germany is a very fragmented market with roughly one doctor per patient. Furthermore, Pepaxti was not well known in Germany with just 1 KOL with experience at launch versus 15 in Spain and 16 in Italy. Spain has had 23 clinical sites and Italy 10, versus 0 for Germany. We therefore expect a much faster uptake in Spain and Italy, which we believe can be more important in reaching profitability in the short to medium term.

Base Case SEK4

We have reduced our short-term sales forecast due to slower growth than we anticipated in Germany and the delay to enter the Netherlands. We have also slightly lower long-term sales with new peak sales of SEK1.2bn (1.5bn). Although short-term visibility is limited, with sales growth this year having been volatile, we believe Spain can be the main driver of sales in the next two to three quarters.

Key financials

SEKm202220232024e2025e2026e
Revenues9.335.234.0101.8230.8
Revenue Growth-92.1%278%-3.3%199%127%
EBITDA-349.4-253.4-267.4-242.0-151.0
EBIT-349.4-253.4-267.4-242.0-151.0
EBIT Margin-62394%-2346%-785%-238%-65.4%
Net Income-339.7-252.3-268.9-253.3-175.2
EV/Sales1,43160.718.38.64.5
EV/EBIT-2.3-2.6-2.3-3.6-6.9

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