Egetis Q3 2024: Financing secured, progress with Emcitate in US and EU

Research Update

2024-11-11

11:03

Redeye returns with an updated view of Egetis Therapeutics following the Q3 report and recent events in the company. The company has in our view made important progress with Emcitate in the US and EU, and also financed the company in a well-executed directed issue.

Fredrik Thor

No major surprises in the report

OPEX landed at -SEK86.8m, which aligns with previous quarters and is close to our expectations. Revenues came in lower than expected, at SEK9m, but this is due to regional variations in orders being delivered relating to Egetis Managed Access Program (ie sales of the drug before approval) and thus not an indicator of demand once the drug is approved. Egetis's cash position amounted to some SEK129.9m, not including the proceeds from the recent directed issue (around SEK282m in net proceeds).

Progress with Emcitate

The company reported positive progress regarding the US pivotal ReTRIACt study, where 17 patients have been included, including eight patients through the randomization phase and four patients in the run-in phase. The company has opened up new sites in the US, with 6 in total open sites. The company has identified >10 eligible patients remaining for recruitment; a few are already scheduled for screening. The company states that recruitment will continue until at least 16 patients have completed the randomization phase. In the EU, Egetis announced in August that it had responded to the EMA 120-day list of questions, which was in line with the previously communicated timeline. On October 17th, the company received the "day 180 questions" and plans to respond by November 12th per the procedural timetables. According to the conference call, the questions are "manageable," and the company has not seen the need to ask for an extension. We expect a potential CHMP opinion in December.

Minor tweaks to the valuation

We mostly reiterate our previous stance but have made minor adjustments related to FX, timeline, and dilution following the complete execution of the directed issue. We also raise our expectations for 2025e-2026e somewhat. We adjust our base case to SEK14 (15) per share. We will return with a more thorough take on the EU commercialization and our expectations for 2025e sales soon, hopefully after a positive CHMP opinion in December.

Key financials (risk-adjusted)

SEKm20232024e2025e2026e
Revenues57.660.0120.8644.7
EBIT-324.9-300.5-260.3238.2
EBIT Margin-564%-501%-235%37.0%
Net Income-326.9-315.3-294.6239.2

Disclosures and disclaimers

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