Lifecare Q3 2024: Steady progress but veterinary launch postponed
Research Update
2024-11-14
07:55
Redeye updates its view on Lifecare following its Q3 report. Despite the anticipated delay in the veterinary market launch, the company continues to make steady progress in key areas, including production automation, clinical validation, and business development.
Filip Einarsson
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Lifecare reported revenue of NOK1.5m (-43% vs REe, -40% y/y growth), with OPEX, including D&A, amounting to NOK-21m. This resulted in an EBIT of NOK-20.4m, slightly above our forecast of NOK-17.6m. The deviation, while minor in absolute terms, was due to slightly lower laboratory revenue and slightly higher personnel costs than we had penciled in. These figures, although below our estimates, are relatively in line with the Q2 numbers. The end-of-quarter cash position was NOK75.8m, and does not include the NOK16.6m gross proceeds raised in early Q4 following the Euronext Oslo uplisting.
Lifecare has maintained high activity levels in Q3 and beyond, achieving key milestones, including the completion of the 12-week longevity study, automating critical stages of its production process, and finalizing a draft for the long-term human study protocol, which is required for the CE clinical trial. The company has also partnered with OneTwo Analytics to develop a data analytics platform for Sencell, designed for veterinary use but also compatible with human healthcare applications. This platform aids in diabetes management by analyzing glucose data from CGM sensors. Additionally, Lifecare’s shares are now listed on Euronext Oslo, aimed to enhance visibility and market access. Lastly, the company has also postponed the veterinary market launch to 2025.
Given the postponed veterinary launch, we have revised our revenue estimates to align with the current outlook while largely maintaining our cost-base assumptions. These adjustments result in a slight adverse impact on our fair value range, which now stands at NOK10-98 (12-128), with a base case of NOK36 (43).
NOKm | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | 2026e |
Revenues | 22.2 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 17.8 | 59.6 |
Revenue Growth | 1286% | -47.9% | 3.0% | 50.1% | 234% |
EBITDA | -19.2 | -36.1 | -69.4 | -67.7 | -36.3 |
EBIT | -22.2 | -39.0 | -73.5 | -68.0 | -38.7 |
EBIT Margin | -100% | -338% | -618% | -381% | -64.9% |
EV/Revenue | 7.6 | 48.5 | 15.6 | 9.8 | 3.8 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
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