Northbaze Group: Adding another building block

Fredrik Reuterhäll answers the top questions on this Research Update

Research Update

2024-11-25

07:55

Analyst Q&A

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Fredrik Reuterhäll will answer the top questions on this Research Update

Ends in 2 days and 8 hours

Redeye updates on Northbaze Group following its Q3 results, which were better than expected in both sales and profitability (adjusted for integration of Entra). In the quarter, sales increased by 73% year-over-year, with an EBITDA margin of 4%. Based on our estimates 2025E, the implied EV/Sales multiple for 2025 is 0.1x, with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.8x.

Fredrik Reuterhäll

Oskar Vilhelmsson

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Solid Q3

Northbaze Group achieved net sales of SEK48m, growing 73% y/y due to acquisitions and organic growth in Adiantes. Gross profit reached SEK20m, with a margin of 42%, exceeding expectations. EBITDA came in at SEK2m, significantly better than the estimated SEK-1.9m, although impacted by one-time costs from the Enter acquisition. Operational cash flow was SEK4.5m, leaving a cash position of SEK14m at period-end. In 2025E, we project Northbaze will reach sales of SEK507m and EBITDA of SEK19m, a 4% margin.

Acquisitions will drive gross margin down, but positive EBITDA for the year

We are raising our next-quarter EBITDA estimate from SEK-9m to SEK1.2m, bringing the full-year estimate to SEK11m. This minor adjustment does not affect our long-term valuation range. Going forward, we expect Northbaze Group to maintain an EBITDA margin of around 4%, with potential for improvement if gross margins increase over time.

Reiterating our valuation range, Base case SEK0.75

We are reiterating our valuation range of SEK0.14 - SEK1.37 with a Base case at SEK0.75. Calculating the upside potential from the 30-day WVAP (SEK0.28) to our valuation implies an upside potential of 170% to our base case. On back of our estimates, the implied EV/Sales multiple for 2025E is 0.1x, with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.8x.

Key financials

SEKm20232024e2025e2026e
Revenues127.3258.7507.1527.1
Revenue Growth-23.3%103%96.1%3.9%
EBITDA3.010.618.820.0
EBITDA Margin2.3%4.1%3.7%3.8%
EBIT-24.5-7.412.214.2
EBIT Margin-19.3%-2.9%2.4%2.7%
Net Income-31.6-9.96.88.4
EV/Sales0.70.30.10.1
EV/EBITDA28.68.32.82.0

Q3 2024

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