Cantargia will focus future clinical trials on patients with high IL1RAP expression, for which a companion diagnostic is being developed, likely to be ready in H2 2025. The next trial in pancreatic cancer will be phase II or III in such patients, with a trial application planned for H2 2025. The decision to narrow down to this population has been influenced by discussions with potential investors and partners, as pancreatic cancer is considered the perhaps most risky cancer indication of all. The companion diagnostic will make the programme much more appealing, with a lower risk and lower clinical trial costs. Future developments in lung cancer will probably also involve using a companion diagnostic, although IL1RAP may already be upregulated in 2nd line non-squamous NSCLC patients previously treated with PD-(L)1 inhibitors.

Cantargia aims to raise SEK170m before costs by issuing 92m shares. With a strike price of SEK1.85, this corresponds to a dilution of 33% for shareholders who do not subscribe. The share had been trading around SEK3 during the previous month, so the discount is typical. It is underwritten to 70% or SEK120m. Full subscription will support operations until mid-2026.

We have made significant changes to our estimates in this update, including a new pancreatic cancer forecast as IL1RAP-high patients will be targeted, an updated NSCLC forecast and assuming a deal for CAN10 worth USD500m with USD10+20m upfront, which reduces the value compared with in-house development by Cantargia. We value the share assuming full subscription in the rights issue. The next major share catalysts are CAN10’s phase I readout in H1, including effects in skin biopsies from psoriasis patients, and the first full readout from TRIFOUR (nadunolimab in triple-negative breast cancer) in H1 with response rates. Long-term efficacy (progression-free and overall survival) will be evaluated in H2. Together, the two readouts in TRIFOUR could be the most important until now.