BeammWave: Customer activity remains high
Rasmus Jacobsson answers the top questions on this Research Update
Research Update
2024-11-18
07:00
Analyst Q&A
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Ends in 2 days and 8 hours
Rasmus Jacobsson will answer the top questions on this Research Update
Ends in 2 days and 8 hours
Redeye states BeammWave’s report was insignificant, and the customer announced the morning after was the main event. Redeye views the signalling value of the undisclosed mmWave leader (turnover higher than USD10bn) as significant, as it already has an established market share. Thus, BeammWave would scale rapidly with each socket win. Redeye believes financing is decent, with existing warrants being in the money. Redeye raises its estimates and fair value range.
Rasmus Jacobsson
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Order of USD150k announced — Low order value but significant verification value
After the Q3 2024 report’s publication, BeammWave announced an order worth USD150k with a leading mmWave company. Although the name remains undisclosed, the company has a turnover of over USD10bn and more than 70k employees. The order value is small but we believe the customer will spend a magnitude more in internal resources. Additionally, we believe the significance is that the customer has an existing market share, and each socket win will offer BeammWave a considerable upside. Considering its size, we believe the customer sells more than ten million units of mmWave equipment annually. However, the probabilities are hard to assess. In any case, the order validates BeammWave’s technology. BeammWave reaffimred a positive outlook and high customer activity hereafter.
Financing remains decent, with outstanding warrants in the money.
OPEX remains stable at around SEK9m per quarter. With the warrants being in the money (terms: 30% discount to VWAP 18-29 November with a floor of SEK3 and ceiling of SEK6; subscription period 2-13 December), we expect BeammWave to receive SEK30m based on the current share price from these in Q4 2024 (prev. SEK26m). Two Vinnova projects were announced with a total value attributable to BeammWave of SEK5.3m (SEK2.3m Nov 24-Nov 25 and SEK3.0m Nov 24-Aug 27.) BeammWave is selective in what Vinnova projects it applies for and aims to achieve synergies between immediate R&D for its technical platform and the Vinnova project.
Increased confidence underpins estimate and fair value range revision
We are surprised by the market reaction to the order as it added SEK3m to the market cap while the order from Molex added SEK40m. The latter was smaller and less obvious from a strategic point of view. However, as the stock has rallied 125% following the Q2 report, investors likely “bought on rumours and sold on facts”. BeammWave remains a binary situation. We have increased our 2026e-2028 sales estimate by 9-14% to reflect our increased confidence. We raise our fair value range to SEK2.2-14.4(SEK1.5-11.0) with a Base Case of SEK7.0(SEK5.6) per share.
Key financials
| SEKm | 2023 | 2024Q4e | 2024e | 2025e | 2025Q1e | 2025Q2e | 2025Q3e | 2025Q4e | 2026e |
| Revenues | 14.0 | 4.8 | 16.7 | 22.0 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 10.2 | 92.6 |
| Revenue Growth | -1.6% | 86.4% | 18.9% | 32.0% | -39.3% | 59.9% | 9.6% | 114% | 321% |
| EBITDA | -20.9 | -7.6 | -20.9 | -28.7 | -9.2 | -9.9 | -8.6 | -10.3 | 8.7 |
| EBIT | -21.0 | -7.6 | -21.0 | -29.6 | -9.4 | -10.1 | -8.8 | -10.5 | 4.1 |
| EBIT Margin | - | -472% | -787% | -296% | - | -338% | - | -150% | 5.1% |
| Net Income | -20.2 | -7.6 | -21.0 | -29.6 | -9.4 | -10.1 | -8.8 | -10.5 | 4.1 |
| EV/Sales | - | 41.1 | 0.7 | 5.9 | - | 23.1 | - | 9.9 | 0.7 |
| EV/EBIT | -6.4 | -8.7 | -0.1 | -2.0 | -7.3 | -6.8 | -7.8 | -6.6 | 14.5 |
Disclosures and disclaimers
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