In September, the last patient was treated in Leaderna’s phase I study. Initial results will be presented at the beginning of 2025. This is the nearest catalyst for the share.

After a delay caused by the original sites chosen not having the capacity to conduct a clinical trial with Lipisense, Lipigon has now selected other clinics where it will conduct the trial. The first patient was enrolled in November. It expects full enrolment in H1 2025. According to the CEO comment in the Q3 report, full enrolment is expected early in H1 2025 and preliminary results around mid-2025. Since patients are followed for six months after a one-month treatment period, we expect topline results in H2 2025. The next step is a study in severe hypertriglyceridemia, but a strong effect on remnant cholesterol in the ongoing phase II study could motivate an expansion into a cardiovascular indication.

We have decreased the expected deal value for Lipisense to USD600m (USD850m) and the upfront to USD25m (USD35m). However, the main reason for our lower base case in this update is from higher expected dilution due to a lower share price. The cash position was SEK20m when including the accounts receivable of SEK9m from Leaderna, which was paid in Q4. This should last until mid-2025. The market now essentially values the company to its cash, which we do not think is logical. While we would have expected the market to punish the share for the delay of the phase II study, we think this is an overreaction. Cardiovascular and metabolic drugs are a hot sector for drug development where large deals and funding rounds are being made internationally (a recent deal is discussed below). Perhaps the sentiment will improve when the trial is fully recruited. There might also be some hesitation about the financial runway, but other Swedish biotechs have similar runways without being valued at cash.